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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

East Carolina +135 over Temple

1:00 PM EST East Carolina doesn’t look appealing on the surface, and that’s exactly why the value is showing up here. The Pirates have struggled mightily in the win column, but the betting market has already adjusted hard in the other direction, often inflating Temple’s perceived edge. ECU’s offense isn’t pretty, yet their problems have been more about efficiency than effort, and that matters in a matchup against a Temple team that hasn’t consistently punished weaker opponents. The Pirates have held their own against the spread in this series despite losing games outright, which suggests they tend to play Temple tighter than expected. When a team is priced as if it has no path to success, even modest improvements in shooting or pace can swing the outcome.

Temple enters in better form, but there are some underlying cracks that make them less trustworthy as a favorite. Their offense is still limited, particularly from three-point range, and they rely heavily on grinding games into half-court battles. That style keeps margins small and opens the door for underdogs to hang around deep into the second half. While Temple has defended well over the last few weeks, they haven’t faced many opponents with East Carolina’s size and interior presence, which could force foul trouble and disrupt their rhythm. If Temple’s perimeter shots aren’t falling, they don’t have the offensive firepower to comfortably separate.

From a value perspective, backing East Carolina is less about believing they’re the better team and more about recognizing how the matchup and price intersect. The Pirates can control stretches of the game with rebounding and rim protection, and they don’t need to win a shootout to stay competitive. In a low-possession game where Temple’s scoring ceiling is limited, the underdog has a real chance to flip the script late. When the market leans heavily toward recent form and ignores matchup-specific edges, that’s often the right moment to grab the plus-value side — and East Carolina to win fits that profile tonight.

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