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Posted at 12:30 PM EST

Ball State +4½ -110 over BUFFALO

7:00 PM EST. The MAC is not going to have any at large bids this year. The winner of the conference will earn an automatic entry into the Big Dance and who that will be is anyone’s guess. The point is that these in-conference games are not that big right now for the Bulls because they are in the middle of the pack in the MAC East and are only playing for the seeding in the conference tournament. Buffalo is 7-5 in the conference and 16-9 overall. The thinking is that the MAC East is superior to the MAC West and therefore Buffalo’s 7-5 conference record is more impressive than Ball State’s 7-5 identical conference mark but we’re not so sure.

Ball State has a more impressive résumé. Buffalo does not have a single notable win all season. Its best win was perhaps against DePaul. After steamrolling the MAC for two straight seasons, Buffalo watched its golden boy head coach (Nate Oats) defect for a brighter stage (Alabama) and a bigger bank account this offseason. It’s hard to ignore the losses of CJ Massinburg, Jeremy Harris and Nick Perkins, especially the latter two, who were nearly impossible to defend 1-on-1 for most inferior MAC forwards. Without the secret sauce that aforementioned big-3 formed last year, the Bulls have come back down to Earth and now teams get really jacked up to play them. However, because Buffalo has had such a great market presence the past two years, one will pay dearly to get behind them. Ball State was a 5-point favorite over East leading Bowling Green last game out and now they swing 9½-points to a team that is behind the Falcons in the standings.

Ball State’s close proximity to one of the most fertile hoop hotbeds in America explains how the Cardinals have consistently hauled in top-flight talent, at least by MAC standards, and on paper, this 2019-20 squad is no different. Ball State beat Buffalo by 20 points earlier this year and there is no reason they can’t beat them again.

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