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Posted at 12:30 PM EST

LOUISVILLE -9½ -110 over Clemson

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2:00 PM EST. Clemson is not a hoops power, but it is much improved this season and has already built a résumé of quality wins. Victories over ACC royalty like Duke and North Carolina have to be considered program highlights, but those high profile triumphs, as well as a run of four wins in five games has the Tigers getting way too much attention from an unsuspecting market. Clemson is capable of also getting whacked when playing quality competition, as it did in losses to Florida State (72-53) and Minnesota (78-60). The Tigers have also struggled in games that oddsmakers expected them to win, dropping contests to Miami, Yale and South Carolina, all as the betting chalk. This is going to look like a significant price to take back for a team that beat the Dukies 10 days ago against one that barely beat the Yellow Jackets.

We faded the Cardinals in a tough sandwich spot against Georgia Tech on Wednesday night because we suspected they might have had one eye already on this matchup with Clemson. With that recency bias in play, we now get Louisville at a reduced rate after the Yellow Jackets gave it a scare by taking the lead into halftime and going shot-for-shot until the end, falling by just four, 68-64 as a +14½-point underdog. Failing to cover that large point spread and four others over the last seven games has the Cardinals undervalued despite being the No. 5 team in the nation.

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