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Posted March 23 at 10:35 AM EST

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena - Jacksonville, FL

12:10 PM EST. The third day of this event is usually what we refer to as overreaction day, as the market has now seen all 32 teams that will compete against one another. LSU went gate to wire against upset minded Yale in the first round on Thursday and led by double digits most of the way. A late run by Yale (they hit three three’s in the final minute for instance) allowed them to cover but the outright winner was never in doubt. Yale hit “garbage time” points to cover but the point is that LSU’s performance stuck out because it was an early game on one of the biggest days of the year on the sports calendar. LSU is a great team and Tremont Waters scares the hell out of us. LSU’s offense revolves around the wizardry of its mini master. The 5’11 Waters is a deft distributor, and his vision in transition (plus the Tigers’ stable of athletes) has made LSU incredibly potent in the open floor. The way the Tigers handled Yale, a team with some future NBA players, was incredibly impressive and also appealing to a market that often overreacts to what it saw last but if basketball is about matchups, this one isn’t so good for the Tigers. Furthermore, although the Tigers are loaded with talent, they are also a team that does not play smart. They take ill-advised shots, they get careless with the ball and they go on extended scoring droughts usually. We wonder if some frustration will set in against the Terps strong interior defense. LSU relies heavily on working the ball inside, working the boards and second chance points. All of that may not be available here.

As a three-point favorite over Belmont, Maryland trailed most of the game before holding on for a two-point win. As a mid-major that few were familiar with, Maryland’s win or near miss against the Bruins doesn’t hold nearly the same weight as LSU’s win over Yale. However, we trust it was a great win. You see, Belmont is coached by Rick Byrd’s picturesque offense and overall smart approach to the game and yet Maryland was still able to overcome that. By contrast, the Tigers approach is not smart. Furthermore, the Terps thrive on second chance opportunities, just like the Tigers therefore LSU will not be able to dominate the boards, thus taking the Tigers even more out of their comfort zone. Maryland’s Two Towers frontline of Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith are big and athletic enough to dominate this game. Offensively, Anthony Cowan is a dynamic scorer and passer who had a horrible game against Belmont (3-of-18, 1-of-10 from 3, nine points) thus, it would be unreasonable to expect another poor performance from the Terps leading scorer. Public perception after Thursday is that the Tigers are being sold short here we’re in complete disagreement. When things don’t go LSU’s way, they get stupid and that part of their game will be on full display here. It is actually the Terps that are being undersold here, thus, we’re playing Maryland to win outright.

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