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Posted March 22 at 10:35 AM EST

NCAA Tournament - Midwest Regional - BOK Center, Tulsa, OK

4:00 PM EST. It can be very difficult to get a true read on some of these mid-majors because they play so many weak teams and their numbers and overall records get skewed. The Buffalo Bulls are back in the tournament for the second straight year after a 31-3 season in which they claimed the MAC regular season and tournament crowns. You may remember them from their first-round beatdown of Arizona last year in a 4-13 matchup in South Region, when the Bulls dismantled the much maligned Wildcats, 89-68. Nate Oats' bunch returns their three leading scorers from that team (plus a junior) and has now earned a #6 seed. Buffalo has the third-shortest average length of possession on the offensive side of the ball, but their offensive efficiency is what makes them the potent scoring team that they are. The Bulls ranked sixth in the nation in points per game while boasting the 19th-ranked offense, according to Kenpom. Combine that with their ability to avoid turnovers -- 18th in the nation -- and they're an efficient team that takes card of the ball and runs a fast pace, making them tough to beat. Buffalo is not just a one trick pony, either, ranking 22nd in defensive rating.

Arizona State is a play-in team and didn’t look that impressive in beating the then reeling Johnnies. The Sun Devils come from the PAC-12 where the top team in that division (record-wise) is a dog to Utah State today. The Sun Devils lost by double digits this year to Vanderbilt, Utah, Stanford, Washington State and Oregon. What those first four teams have in common is that they’re watching this event from the rails. Oregon is not but Oregon beat Arizona State 79-51 on Feb 28 and then they took ASU lightly in the PAC-12 Championship game and still beat them. Those aren’t the only losses on ASU’s résumé either. They lost a bunch by single digits too and ended up with 10 losses overall. The Sun Devils aren’t a bad team but they’re undisciplined and they are the second best team in this matchup by a wide margin and KenPom agrees, ranking ASU 58th and Buffalo 22nd. Swallow the points.

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