Hartford @ BALTIMORE COUNTY
Hartford -109 over BALTIMORE COUNTY

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Posted at 2:15 PM EST

America East Tournament - RAC Arena - Baltimore, MD

7:00 PM EST. The Retrieves of Baltimore County burst on to the national scene after becoming the first #16 seed to take down a #1 in the NCAA Tournament and they certainly enjoyed their time in the sun, as the scrappy underdogs endeared themselves to the nation. Making history last season put a lot of pressure on UMBC, as it's going to be near impossible to repeat that performance, but the Retrievers now have a pedigree in the market, as one of the most well-known third-tier team in the country. Teams like Florida Gulf Coast, and Baltimore Country leave an impression when they pull off the big upsets and those schools are what make the NCAAs so special. However, outside of UMBC, we're not sure how many casual observers could name the conference it plays in or a few of the other schools in it. Because of the Retrievers recognizability, they are easy to bet, but they should not be favored in this game. UMBC opened this America East Tournament with a 62-54 win over Albany on Saturday, but it's last year's team that is still top of mind. When someone like forward Arkel Lamar says, “Just honestly not thinking about last year,” you know he's thinking about last year.

Hartford is the number four seed in this tournament, while Baltimore is third, but expectations were high for the Hawks this season. Along with Vermont, Hartford was supposed to be a top tier team in the America East, but the senior-loaded Hawks went just 18-14 overall and 11-6 in conference play. Despite two fewer wins overall, the Hawks played a much tougher non-conference schedule than UMBC (134 to 290) according to KenPom and Hartford is actually rated 41 spots higher by that outfit, which uses analytics to grade teams rather than frivolous surface stats and polls. Hartford had the highest offensive efficiency rating in the conference and it features a trio of solid shooters in JR Lynch, Jason Dunne and Travis Weatherington, but the Hawks depth doesn't end there, as they also have a formable frontcourt. Those five players played a ton of minutes for head coach John Gallagher and he's obviously leaning heavy on his outgoing players. If you're looking for a Cinderella story to make a run in this America East Tournament and punch their ticket, it's these Hawks.

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Our Pick

Hartford -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)