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Posted at 12:30 PM EST

#884 Southern Illinois -3½ -101 over Northern Iowa

2019 MVC tournament site: Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO

9:35 PM EST. In sticking with the MVC tournament, we’re switching gears to favorite here, as we trust this one is very underpriced. Give Northern Iowa some credit for a recent run that saw them win four conference games in a row and five of seven but that was truly the only good run they went on the entire year. If you look up Northern Iowa on KemPom’s Strength of Schedule (SOS) rankings, one will see that the Panthers non-con SOS ranked 67th in the country. We actually find that a little curious.

Here is NIU’s non-con schedule and results:

Do you see the above as a difficult non-conference schedule because we sure the f**k don’t. Perhaps KenPom made an error/typo or had it aligned incorrectly because NIU’s con-conference SOS was not that tough at all. Its two toughest games were against Iowa and Utah State and NIU got blown out in both by 23 and 19 points respectively. Northern Iowa also dropped its final two games of the regular season. Maybe we’re off but we see a flawed team with major holes on the interior. Austin Phyfe is the only returner who played somewhat meaningful minutes last season and even he was far from being a dominant rebounder. Dude is averaging a mere nine minutes per game this year. NIU is not a good rebounding team and therefore it is always vulnerable to second chance points. The Panthers finished the year 14-17 overall and in 5th in the MVC with a 9-9 record. We’re suggesting that they are not in SIU’s class and that the Salukis also have a big edge in coaching.

If you have watched or followed MVC basketball over the years, it is hard not to be was drawn to Barry Hinson’s unwavering level of intensity. The coach’s demeanor shines through in the effort his players give on every possession, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Since coming to Carbondale in 2012, Hinson’s teams have been typically undersized, even by MVC standards. He’s counteracted the lack of an imposing inside presence by constructing shell-like defenses that emphasize shutting down any and all dribble penetration. And with Hinson often leaning on quicker, more perimeter-oriented lineups, the Salukis have been consistently effective at generating steals that feed easy transition scoring opportunities going the other way. That hasn’t been the case this year because Hinson is well-equipped with two interior shot-blocking savants in 6’10 Kavion Pippen (nephew of NBA-legend and defensive stalwart Scottie Pippen) and long, bouncy 6’8 Thik Bol, who missed the entire 2017-18 campaign. Bol only plays about 14 minutes per but the coach doesn’t need much more out of him, as there is an interior presence at all times.

When looking at SIU’s non-con SOS, we see that the Salukis opened the year against two ranked teams, Kentucky and Buffalo and the Salukis didn’t look a bit out of place against either, losing by just 12 and 9 points respectively. Not to be outdone, the Salukis played Buffalo again in mid-December and lost by just eight. SIU also played Colorado State, UMass, Saint Louis, Tulsa, Murray State and Winthrop as part of their non-conference schedule and racked up three wins against that pack of six. Barry Hinson will be ready for this tournament. The entire year was spent getting ready for this moment. Hinson has all five of his starters from last year back, which doesn’t even account for the reinsertion of Bol or valuable bench pieces Rudy Stradnieks and Eric McGill. The Salukis are the team nobody wants to face because they can beat anyone including the Ramblers or Bulldogs. We get the chalk at a true bargain here and we’re not going to miss it.

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