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Posted at 12:40 PM EST

#633 Evansville +5½ -110 over Illinois St

2019 MVC tournament site: Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO

9:30 PM EST. The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off tonight and to say it’s a wide open event would be an understatement. Drake and Loyola-Chic tied for the league title with the worst conference record of any champion (12-6) in the 112-year history of the Valley. Illinois State, which finished 9-9 in conference play after falling at SIU on the final day of the regular season, is just the third team in league history to compete in the first round (play-in games) of the event with a .500 league record. The point is that every team in the Valley feels that it could earn an automatic bid, even the last place Aces of Evansville. This is a new season now and it begins here.

It would be so simple to make a case for Illinois State here, as they finished 9-9 in conference while Evansville finished 5-13 but not everything is as it appears. For one, KenPom has Illinois St as the 200th best team in the country while he has Evansville not that far behind at 224. However, two months ago, Evansville was ranked 288, so they have made a significant move and it’s not based on results. It’s based on the metrics and efficiencies that a team displays in key areas. Illinois State has regressed in KenPom’s rankings over that same span. Furthermore, the Aces played the 111th ranked non-con Strength of Schedule (SOS)  while Illinois State's SOS ranked 129th. Evansville played at Xavier in its non-conference schedule and lost by just six and it also lost by just two to Murray State, who is another likely tournament team.

The Redbirds have some poor propensities. They’re sloppy and take a lot of low percentage shots. They have also lost six of their past eight, which includes a 16-point loss to a Valpo team that is second last in the conference. There is no proverbial switch to turn on for this favorite, who is sinking quickly but the only thing the market sees is records and results. We get a nice takeback on Evansville in a game we trust they can win outright in.

What you may not know about the Purple Aces is that a new era unfolded this season under the direction of NBA-journeymen Walter McCarty after Marty Simmons was let go after a decade-long run of incompetence. Other than a three-year gig as a Louisville assistant studying under Rick Pitino, McCarty’s basketball experience as both a player and as a coach are heavily rooted in the NBA. His windy road has taken him to the Knicks, Celtics, Suns, Pacers and then back again to the Celtics as an assistant before ultimately returning to his hometown of Evansville. McCarty spent five years in the Celtics organization, two of which were under the oversight of President Brad Stevens. McCarty brought with him many of the offensive quick-hitter plays that the Celtics so routinely carved up opposing defenses with, as well as some of the defensive pressure schemes from his time with Pitino at Louisville. The Aces have been working on everything this year for this moment and it would be of no surprise to see this underdog make a run. They catch the perfect team at the right time to start it off.

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