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Posted at 12:15 PM EST.

6:30 PM EST. In a write-up last week, we discussed the “early” start games in college basketball during weekday games and how they stood out among the rest. We targeted the Davidson/Dayton game that day while citing that the market will get a head start on a stand-alone game that begins before the rest. Like that game, this one will also stand out in a relatively small menu on the college slate and because it starts early, almost every bettor will have a “look” at it. Rest assured that the oddsmakers didn’t put out a bad number for this game but it may appear like they did. Do not take the bait.

It would be simple to make a case for the favorite here. After all, Bowling Green is first in the MAC East with an 11-2 conference mark and a 19-7 overall mark while the underdog is dead last in the MAC East with a 3-10 conference record and a 10-15 overall record. Additionally, BGU has won three in a row and 14 of its past 16 while Ohio has dropped six in a row. There is literally nothing appealing about taking back four lousy points with the last place Bobcats but not everything is as it appears.

Ohio was considered to be a contender in the MAC East this season, though Buffalo was the favorite by a wide margin. However, three key injuries to two returners and one newcomer derailed the Bobcats season. There is an adjustment period when guys go down but make no mistake that this is a well-coached team with a talented backcourt. Furthermore, the Bobcats non-con strength of schedule ranked 130 positions higher than the Falcons 299th ranked out-of-conference schedule. It’s also worth noting that the Bobcats are 9-4 at home.

Meanwhile, all that’s left for BGU is waiting for the conference tournament to begin to try an earn an automatic bid to the dance. There is no chance of them earning an at large bid, not because they play in the MAC but because they have played such a weak schedule that the committee will have to bypass them. BGU’s toughest opponents this season other than their conference rival, Buffalo, was St. John’s and VCU way back in its second and third games of the season in early November. Incidentally, BGU lost both those games. Since then, it has been one marshmallow after another and it’s certainly not been enough to earn an at-large bid. Now the Falcons will play out the remaining five games with practically nothing riding on it. The Falcons are a pedestrian 6-4 on the road against a lot of bad teams and now they look like a steal (on paper) spotting a small price to the last place team in the MAC. They’re not a steal because they are truly worse than their misleading record and oddsmakers know it. Now, you do too.

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