Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:45 PM EST.
8:00 PM EST. While we are not usually in the business of spotting road points in conference play, there are exceptions to every rule. The Panthers of Georgia State are being sold short here, as they are one of the toughest mid-major programs in America. GSU's resume speaks for itself with a big win over Georgia (91-67), tough road victories at Tulane and Alabama and a neutral site toppling of St. Bonaventure that has the Panthers playing the 58th toughest non-conference schedule in the nation according to KenPom. If it were in a Power Five conference, the Panthers would be getting Top-25 consideration, but because they play in the Sun Belt, there are far fewer eyes on them. It can be hard to figure out who is and isn't legit when it comes to the mid-majors, but that is why there is so much value to be found on both sides of the spread. Georgia State is ranked 18th on College Insiders' Men's Mid-Major Top 25, which is a list that features the likes of Gonzaga and Buffalo, which are both ranked nationally. The Panthers are winning at a high clip with six victories in a row, but they are 9-7 against the spread, which might explain why South Alabama is getting the lion's share of the action in this game. However, this is a bad matchup for the Jaguars.
South Alabama is 9-2 at home this season, which may give them some market appeal taking back a price at the Mitchell Center, but their body of work shows the Jaguars have been feasting on the fat with a strength of schedule that ranks 349th of 353 graded schools. Honestly, the Jaguars should have a much better record than they do when you consider the lack of quality on their slate, but this team has some brutal losses, including getting whacked 71-48 by Jacksonville in a game the Jaguars were 12-point chalk and they were blown out (91-62) by Little Rock last time out. When it comes to quality wins, there isn't one to be found, as arguably USA's best victory came at home against the Green Wave, who haven't won a game in nearly a month. We'd be shocked if the Jaguars were able to keep this game in range, as they take a big step up in competition against this undervalued invader.
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#637 Georgia St. -4½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)