Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:30 PM EST.
9:20 PM EST. The field of 68 is down to just two teams with Michigan and Villanova ready to face off for the NCAA national championship. The Wolverines are riding a 14-game win streak on the back of the nation's number three defense in adjusted efficiency according to KenPom. A big part of that success has been the ability of that D to run its opposition right off the three-point line. Much has been made about the Wildcats ability to make 45% of their shots from beyond the arc in a dome stadium where the sightlines are much different than an arena, but it is unlikely they come out that hot again tonight. 'Nova Forward Eric Paschall led the way after hitting 4-of-5 three-pointers. Do you know how many he made from long range in November and December? Two.
We could break down the X's and O's but you can get that bologna anywhere. Just turn on your local sports talk station and you'll hear some blowhard questioning how the Wolverines will stop 'Nova's offensive attack or how Michigan will try and matchup with the Wildcats unstoppable six-man rotation. None of that matters, as the market and the pundits are all over the #1 Wildcats. Over on ESPN, 24-of-25 experts chose 'Nova. After their three-point barrage and 16-point burial of Kansas, it seems that nobody can fathom how Michigan can compete here. Even in Las Vegas there were bettors lined up before this line went live to make sure they got in immediately at the best possible price. Nobody was lining up to bet Michigan. The current spread in favor of Villanova is the largest in an NCAA championship game since Duke was -7 over Butler in 2010. Back then, the Bulldogs were a #5 seed and still just a feisty mid-major. This year Michigan is a #3 seed after winning a Power Five conference championship, thus, to say it is being disrespected here would be an understatement. All that aside, we are in the business of playing or buying undervalued teams or betting against over-reactions. Villanova backers have been laughing all the way to the bank since this event started and trust that the books are done giving away money yet. Villanova may indeed win and cover here but we know we’re taking back inflated points and that’s all we care about it. The prudent play is the dog. Take that to the bank.
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Michigan +7 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)