Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:00 PM EST.
Terrance McKinney +180 over Matt Frevola
UFC 263 - Gila River Arena - Glendale, AZ
7:25 PM EST. Matt Frevola was set to face off with Frank Camacho, but Camacho was forced to pull out of this fight after getting into a traffic accident that left him a little banged up. Stepping in for Camacho will be UFC newcomer Terrance McKinney.
McKinney finds his way to the Octagon on short notice after winning his last two fights in LFA. His most recent outing was just eight days ago, where he swarmed Michael Irizarry just a minute into the main event of that card and picked up the winner's purse. If this story sounds familiar, it is because there was a similar situation last week when LFA alumn Gregory Rodrigues stepped in to face Dusko Todorovic. We could copy and paste what we said there because much of it holds true here, however, this sums it up best. "The market is likely going to focus on the fact that he is making his UFC debut on short notice. While some might see him as an easy target, we see great opportunity." With the "he" now being McKinney. While the situation is similar, McKinney is his own man and he has the pedigree to compete at the highest level. Dude has a great wrestling base that is supported by knockout striking power. His first fight in LFA was a 17 second head kick KO of Luiz Antônio Lobo Gavinho. He finished his opponent prior to that in 16 seconds. His grappling skills need to be respected as well, as he submitted his opponents in six of his first seven professional wins.
So where does that leave Matt Frevola? He was favored to beat Camacho and he is, of course, still the chalk here against a UFC newbie, but should he be? After a 15 month layoff, Frevola returned to the UFC in January to take on prospect Arman Tsarukyan, where he lost a decision in a catchweight bout. Frevola was a 4-1 pooch or more in that fight and now he's better than 2-1 as the chalk against a dude he did not know he was going to fight. That's pretty fucked up from our perch. Frevola may win this fight as expected, but the price of admission is too high. Overlay.
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Terrance McKinney +180 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.60)