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Posted Wednesday, January 22 at 3:00 PM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is January 23 at 7:10 AM EST. 

The Farmers Insurance Open

Now that the NFL season is down to one game, we can get back to previewing these great PGA events weekly leading up to the Masters and beyond. Chances are we wouldn’t have had Andrew Landry at 175-1 last week because he was nearly impossible to pick but it is on our wheelhouse to pick guys at big odds. 

You will not see us picking the top players to win outright because the odds to win are not good enough so we will always be choosing pros that are 40-1 or higher. We’ll have plenty of head-to-head matchups too all season long so let’s get right to it. 

There is just something about The American Express, and its various other guises, that seems to throw up the most unlikely of outcomes. In 2019, for example, Adam Long won despite a spectacularly poor start to the season – a nice little 500-1 earner for any soothsayers that saw that victory coming. And you’d have to say that Andrew Landry’s triumph in La Quinta on Sunday was right up there as far as bonkers PGA TOUR wins is concerned. How does a player who has five consecutive missed cuts to his name just wake up and win an event like The American Express? Who knows, but the former Texas Open champion had a simple manifesto: make more birdies than anybody else.

The Torrey Pines South Course tends to sort the men from the boys, and that’s where we’re heading this week for the Farmers Insurance Open. The Farmers Insurance Open has historically felt like the tournament where the PGA TOUR year really gets underway, and the stellar cast that will meet at Torrey Pines is of the highest order. There’s Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Jon Rahm and Justin Rose, as well as the exciting young bucks Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and, following last week’s disappointment, Scottie Scheffler. The quality keeps on coming in the shape of a pair of two-time champions at Torrey Pines in Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker, while the likes of Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau and Rickie Fowler will be desperate to get another PGA TOUR win on the board. Sony Open champion Cameron Smith and bad-boy Patrick Reed are also in the mix for what is the first ‘proper’ field of 2020.

The Course

It’s another split course event in California, albeit this week’s assignment is rather different from The American Express. It's more difficult, for one thing, with three rounds played at Torrey Pines South, which is a real test of ball striking. It’s a relentlessly long stretch at 7,698 for its Par 72, and with thinner-than-average fairways there is a real challenge to consistently find the short grass. With thick rough and plenty of hazards in play, it’s no surprise to learn that Torrey Pines South once played host to a US Open.

The greens are a touch unusual too, in that they are Poa Annua – a strain fairly native to this part of the country on the west coast. Light relief is provided by the North Course, which the players tackle for one of their opening rounds. The Tom Weiskopf track is much easier than the South – playing as much as two strokes lower, on average, with wider fairways and slick Bentgrass greens that are very receptive.

What We’re Looking For This Week

Given the length of the South Course and the combination of thin fairways and tough rough, clearly this is a golf course where outstanding drivers of the ball can thrive. That is evident in the roll call of winners here: Tiger Woods (x7), Jason Day (x2), Jon Rahm, Bubba Watson and Justin Rose, who are all behemoths with the big stick when on song. Classier operators tend to thrive here too, and so that has to be the takeaway point for gamers this week: those who rank nicely for Total Driving and SG: Off-the-Tee, and have a habit of winning, are must-picks.

Those who find the fairway don’t have too much to fear at the business end of holes. These greens are receptive and run quite smoothly too, with little protection or danger. Hit your approaches close or drain some long putts – either is valid. Unusually, the business end of the holes tends to be easier, with large greens easy enough to find for accurate types with a long iron in hand. A side note is that going low on the North Course is pretty much a necessity, and that Par 72 layout is there for the taking – especially those who can convert birdies and better on the Par 5s. There will be some nerves around on the tee on Sunday, and that is once again why we have to be backing proven horses this week in California.

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To Win Outright:

Ryan Palmer 55-1

One of the most quietly impressive performers in world golf these past few months has been Ryan Palmer. In his last four stroke-play starts he has finished no lower than T12, and he actually saved his best for his last outing at the Sony Open (T4). Palmer has to now convince he can perform when there isn’t a gale blowing, but he is reliably consistent at Torrey Pines and could enjoy the full reward of his recent form by getting into the mix once more in California. Palmer ranks 17th ON TOUR in Scoring Approach, 29th in Total Driving and 37 in Green in Regulation (GIR). (Risking 0.2 units to win 11 units)

Sebastian Munoz 110-1

A reliably excellent driver of the golf ball, Sebastian Munoz has the all-round form to go well at Torrey Pines. The Colombian racked up his first PGA TOUR win at the Sanderson Farms Championship earlier in the campaign, and since then he has banked a solo third at the RSM Classic, showed up nicely at the Tournament of Champions and played some decent stuff at The American Express last time out. Ranking top 40 on Tour for Total Driving and SG: Off-the-Tee, Munoz was particularly strong with his irons last week, so if he can find some putts – he ranks 31st for SG: Putting this season, incidentally – then who knows what he can achieve in California. Dude is shooting well and cannot wait to get back on the golf course (Risking 0.2 units to 22 units)

Sepp Straka 125-1

There was a display of majestic ball-striking from Sepp Straka last week at the American Express and to be fair to the Austrian, it was the kind of performance that would have taken him close to victory on most weeks of the year. His iron play was nothing short of extraordinary, and if he can continue that form at Torrey Pines and marry it to his typically very good driving, Straka can far outperform the expectations of others here. A T13 finish here a year ago sets the scene rather nicely as well. Sepp ranks 28th ON TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee and when you combine everything with his current good form and confidence, this has to be considered a decent overlay. Straka is on the verge of something good so buy low now (Risking 0.2 units to 25 units).

Matthew NeSmith 225-1

While other Korn Ferry Tour graduates have taken the limelight so far this season, one of the most quietly consistent performers from the second rung has been Matthew NeSmith. He earned his TOUR card by Finishing 1st in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals and played seven events last year as a rookie on the MAIN TOUR while missing the cut in five of them. T18 at the Shriners (last season) has been followed by a triple-header of decent form with T14 at the RSM Classic and T17 at last week’s American Express (he ranked inside the top-15 for Strokes Gained: Putting) backed by T32 at the Sony Open, where he ranked inside the top-10 for Strokes Gained: Putting. A decent ball-striker then, evidently, that hits plenty of fairways and greens in regulation, NeSmith’s tidy game should be rewarded more at Torrey Pines than it might otherwise be elsewhere. This is a shot to be sure but this kid has it. He’s 25 and when he does make the cut, he usually thrives. Watch closely. (Risking 0.2 units to 45 units).

Cameron Champ 66-1

One of the best drivers in the world, you wonder how well courses like Torrey Pines will serve Cameron Champ over the course of his career. This is the dream layout in many ways for a player who smashes the ball long and straight, and he also has the advantage of hitting a driving iron or a wood on holes where others are throwing the kitchen sink at the ball off the tee with the big stick. Of course, the other aspects of his game need to come up to the mark before Champ can really be classed as a world-beater in the making, but there’s a nice consistency to his game right now – he’s finished no worse than T33 in his last four starts – and lest we forget he’s already won twice in barely a year on the elite-level circuit. At this price, he’s worth a shot. 

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Head-to-head Matchups for the Farmers Insurance

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-up will be bet at Pinnacle, BET 365 or 5DIMES

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUP below is for 72 holes:

Head to head

Jon Rahm +105 over Rory McElroy

When we think of Torrey Pines, we automatically think of the best drivers in the world. It’s amazing that Rory McIlroy hasn’t played here more often in the past, but the Irishman’s lengthy lay-off after a stellar end to the 2019 campaign is just enough for us to give him a fade here. So step forward Jon Rahm, one of the longest, straightest and most aggressive drivers of the ball in the sport. The Spaniard is also one of the most prolific winners on the planet, claiming four titles worldwide in 2019, and let’s not forget he won here back in 2017 too. Incidentally, John Rahm ranks 5th ON TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee and 6th ON TOUR in Scoring Average. With plenty of doubts about many at the top of the market this week, we trust Rambo to be in great form at a course he usually thrives on. As an underdog, Rahm is absolutely worth getting behind here. (Risking 2 units to win 2.1). 

Others to consider for DFS or to win outright:

Tom Hoge 150-1

Ranking inside the Tour’s top-50 for both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Putting, it’s no great surprise that Tom Hoge’s form has improved immeasurably of late. T12 at the Sony Open and T6 at the American Express, Hoge looks likely at the moment and could get into the mix at a layout where his strong ball-striking should come to the fore. Typically, we might suggest that Hoge isn’t a good enough driver of the ball to thrive at Torrey Pines, but he does have a T12 finish here which suggests the layout at least suits his eye.

Gary Woodland 30-1

Given how strong he is off the tee, it’s perhaps something of an eyebrow-raiser that Gary Woodland hasn’t won more in his career. But the 35-year-old showed in the US Open last year he’s got the game for the big time, and this is a player who has found an average of 75% fairways from a driving distance of a shade under 300 yards – phenomenal stuff. Woodland tends to pick and choose his events, but he never misses Torrey Pines: he’s not missed a cut here in his last seven visits, with T9, T10 and T12 finishes in that run. 

Lanto Griffin 60-1

Another who should thrive in a test of driving prowess is Lanto Griffin, whose strong form continues. Since the Greenbrier, the Houston Open champion has played in 10 PGA TOUR events and recorded eight top-20 finishes, including his win and another top-10 into the bargain. So Griffin returns to the state of his birth in outstanding form and with the ingredients to perform rather well at Torrey Pines. 

Bud Cauley 80-1

It’s a hot take, but it’s a real surprise that Bud Cauley doesn’t have multiple PGA TOUR wins under his belt, such is the strength of his all-round game. You can see it in performances like his T4 at The American Express last week, where every facet of his game was in decent order. A third round of 71 ultimately prevented him from contending more closely. Cauley likes it at Torrey Pines with a pair of T13 finishes, and if he can have another good week off the tee then he can let his money iron and wedge game take care of the rest.

Mix and match any or all of the above with your own to create a DFS roster.

Total Risk for this event is 3 units and we'll update it after the event is complete.

Results

5 golfers to win outright @ 0.2 units each = -1 unit

H2H

Rahm +105 over McIlroy

Total net result = +1.1 units for this event.

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