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Posted Wednesday, February 27 at 1:30 PM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is February 28 at 7:00 AM EST. 

The Honda Classic

With four of the last five winning scores weighing in at single digits under par, there is no denying that PGA National is one of the toughest courses outside of the main major rota, and as a former host of the PGA Championship and Ryder Cup, the difficulty level is wholly apparent. Designed by Tom Fazio, the stretch was given an overhaul by Jack Nicklaus, and the Golden Bear must have been in particularly ferocious mood when he designed the ‘Bear Trap’: the trio of holes from 15-17 that defines the course.

Those of a nervous disposition or low on confidence will simply detest the 15th, a Par 3 with a postage stamp sized green flanked by water and sand. Oh, and the green is undulating and features some severe run-off areas. The aim of the game at 16 is to make par and run away. Featuring a doglegging fairway set at almost 90 degrees, players can go hard an attack the right-hand side of the fairway where a water hazard lurks, or instead lay-up on the left and hit a 220+ yard approach into the Par 4. What a choice that is, and how about the green in 17? At just 30 ft wide, it’s one of the smallest on the PGA TOUR. Every year roughly 25% of attempts at the hole end in bogey or worse, so any would-be champion will have their heart in their chest here.

At 7,158 yards for its Par 70, PGA National isn’t overly long but playing into the ferocious wind can add yardage. Also be warned that the switch from the West Coast to the East also brings with it a change of putting surface from Bentgrass/Poa Annua to Bermuda.

The problem we’re having with picking PGA winners is that the anything under 25-1 or so is horrible value. Collectively, one of those 15-20 pros priced in that range usually win but individually, they are poor bets so we’re going to stick with picking pros that are priced at 30-1 higher. This section is not only for wagering but for FANTASY assistance too.

Our Top-2 Recommendations or overlays To Win outright

Talor Gooch 100-1

A young Web.com Tour graduate that is just starting to revel in the step up to senior level is Talor Gooch, whose approach play really is excellent. There are a five top-20s to his name that interest us that include three this year already with two of those being a top five finish and the other being a 14th place finish. A T18 at the Sony Open last year, (Waialae form is a handy indicator), as well as T20 at the Genesis Open; Riviera is probably one of the toughest courses he has ever experienced and he thrived there. Gooch can get slightly errant off the tee from time to time, which is a concern, but if he can keep his ball out of the water then Gooch’s excellent scrambling and approach play should set up opportunities to grind out a good score. PGA National isn’t the sole preserve of the old timers, as we might assume, so perhaps Gooch can add another welcome top-20 or better to his collection this week. Gooch ranks 6th ON TOUR in SG: Approach the Green, 17th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 15th in SG:Total, 12th in Birdie Average, 22nd in Scoring Average and 27th in Greens in Regulation. 100-1 on this up and coming pro is too high in a field that is not loaded with all the best golfers in the world.

Emiliano Grillo 40-1

This is not the first time we’ve played Grillo and it’s not going to be the last. The only thing we’re confused about is why he’s not had more success when he is one of the least flawed pros on the planet. Grillo comes in with a 3-for-3 slate at PGA National that includes a personal-best T8 last year and a consecutive cuts-made streak of 15 starts worldwide upon arrival. He figures to cash in on his good form, that stretches back many months, anytime now. Grillo hasn’t missed a cut since the British Open, and a handy top-10 strike rate of around 20% showcases the Argentine’s consistency. An excellent ball-striker who ranks third and 10th for strokes gained on approach and from tee-to-green respectively, neither the presence of trees or wind will trouble this well-traveled player, who has shown comfortably playing in all conditions. Some key Stats are that he ranks 3rd ON TOUR in SG: Approach, 9th in Total Driving and 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green. .  

Head-to-head Matchups for the Honda Classic

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-up will be bet at Pinnacle, BET 365 or 5DIMES

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUP below is for 72 holes:

We’re only making one H2H wager each week unless something really sticks out that we can’t refuse.

This week’s H2H is:

#7011 Matt Wallace -127 over Charl Schwartzel

Charl Schwartzel may be on a lot of folks’ radar this week but not ours. Making the trip to the island shows that he’s determined to recapture his best form and that motivation in a major champion should not be underestimated. However, one swallow doesn’t make a summer after his top-ten finish at the Puerto Rico Open and now he’s great fade material again. You see, with his cachet, he was an easy find at the Puerto Rico Open where he delivered with a T6. The problem is that it also aligns with his propensity to spike among relatively extended droughts. Case in point, he has gone 0-for-5 since December following a T3 at his national open in South Africa. That pattern isn't dissimilar to his history at PGA National except that he front-loaded it with top 15’s in his first three appearances (2011-2013) before missing the cut in his last two (2014, 2015). All of this is to say that he remains exactly who we expect him to be.

Meanwhile, Matt Wallace is a lot less known that Schwartzel but keep an eye on him for this event and beyond. PGA National is an equalizer, so there's an argument that experience is overrated to some degree and that the best talents rise no matter what. The 28-year-old from England will put his skill set to the test on the PGA TOUR for the first time in a non-major and non-WGC. He went -17 and T2 and the Dubai Desert Classic in late January, not to mention three other top 20’s this season as well as a T33 last week in Mexico. Dude is OWGR’s 38th ranked while Schwartzel’s poor form back-dates quite some time. Pencil us in for this one.  (Risking 2.54 units to win 2).

FANTASY: Horse for the Course

Justin Thomas

There’s nothing particularly earth-shattering about this pick and given how well he is playing, he will win soon. Given how tough the course is, and how often the cream rises to the top at PGA National, JT is an obvious play given the scarcity of absolute quality in the field. Will he be high owned, given that he’s the defending champion with three consecutive top-10 finishes? Of course, but really do you want to miss out on a player rated as short as 5/1 by the SportsBooks? Are the likes of Fowler, Scott, Garcia or Woodland anywhere near as likely to win as Thomas is? We grant you that Brooks Koepka can achieve anything in the game, but he has the ability to play poorly too. JT, who once again ranked inside the top-three for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in Mexico, is so confident right now and hitting the ball so well that the Bear Trap will hold no fear, and with minimal wind predicted, the possible ‘leveling of playing field’ is taken out of the equation. JT ranks  ON TOUR in SG: Approach, 1st in SG: Tee-to-Green and 2nd in Scoring Average

Others to consider for FANTASY:

Patrick Rodgers

He’s one of those players that has the ability to confound expectation and frustrate in equal measure, and some will be wondering if Patrick Rodgers will ever fulfill his undoubted potential. How you can finish solo second and then miss four consecutive cuts takes some explaining, as he did when going well at the RSM Classic before stinking the place out thereafter. Rodgers played well last time out, however, at Riviera with a T15 finish, and that’s one of many he has achieved in recent years. Can he go in again this week? We’ll see but he’s worth it because he won’t be highly owned and is capable of a top-15 finish with his excellent putting game.

Webb Simpson

A year ago to the week, Webb Simpson was one shot adrift of leader Luke List with a round to play at the Honda Classic. The former US Open champion couldn’t get the job done, but his showing that week was the catalyst for a run of fine form that culminated in him winning THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass.

Simpson has largely remained in form ever since, with a top-10 at the US Open backed by T12 at the British Open, T2 at the Wyndham Championship, T4 at the TOUR Championship and T6 at the BMW Championship. It’s a love affair with golf on Bermudagrass that makes Simpson a particularly appealing play this week, as does a consistency which dates back an entire calendar year.

 

Richy Werenski (175-1)

 

Back in Mid-November, roughly a mere three months ago, Richy Werenski was priced at 60-1 to win the RSM Classic. He did not win that week but he shot -13 and finished T15. While there are no correlations, the point is that at this price and likely mostly unowned in Fantasy, Werenski can sneak up any week.  This 26-year-old tends to go under the radar whenever he tees up on the PGA TOUR. Take a look at his eight rounds back in November: 67-67-66-65-68-68-66-70. This is a young man with talent. Four of those fine efforts led to a T3 return at Mayakoba, and you wonder if the former Georgia Tech student will fancy being close to his old stomping grounds and how many times he’s played this course as an amateur. Probably more than a few.  

 

Sung Kang

 

There is plenty to be said for having the in-form on side ahead of a trip to a track that can bring grown men to their knees, and Sung Kang has been playing well enough to cope with the test. Three top-20s in five starts has been headlined by T10 and T14 returns on the coasts of Hawaii and California, so windy tests are of no concern to the Korean. Kang actually has a top-ten to his name at PGA National, and has a catalogue of strong showings on the East Coast on his resumé.

 

C.T. Pan

 

C.T. Pan has a unique skill set that won’t yield results everywhere, but on tight Par 70s it does seem to work for him. Short and accurate off the tee, Pan simply does the fundamentals well, ranking 46th on Tour for Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders. The University of Washington graduate has finished T2 in the Wyndham Championship and T4 at the Dell Technologies Championship in North Carolina and Boston respectively, so returns to the East Coast tend to suit him well.

 

Scott Piercy

 

Some of Scott Piercy’s most lucrative paydays have come at tricky courses – T2 at the US Open in 2016, for example, and solo third at the BMW Championship in 2015 – so grinding golf holds no fear. He’s also adept in the wind if it comes into play. His formline is outstanding: in his last eight outings there have been four top-10s and a pair of other top-20s. Excellent from tee-to-green, Piercy only needs a few putts to drop to be a contender this week.

 

Please Note: We are officially making one wager for this event and it is the H2H matchup posted above. Here are a couple of example DFS entries:

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