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Posted Wednesday, May 9 at 11:45 AM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is May 10 at 7:54 AM EST. 

The Players Championship

This Week's Course Preview

You probably know the drill here already, but only the cream of the crop will tee it up at Sawgrass this week. Thomas, Johnson, as in D.J., Spieth, McIlroy, Reed, Fowler, Day, Rose, Matsuyama, Garcia….you get the idea. All in all, there are 14 players in the field who have won in the past eight weeks, including Jon Rahm, making his second appearance at Sawgrass after last year’s missed cut.

If you want a really deep dive into the layout at TPC Sawgrass, the PGA TOUR website has a link to a fascinating hole-by-hole overview with comments from the players. What makes this stretch so enjoyable (for spectators and players? It’s a 7,150 yard Par 72, and the perfect advert for the notion that you don’t need to add miles of fairways to challenge the best in the business.

Instead, Sawgrass features plenty of dog-legged holes, with rather penal rough punishing anyone who strays from the short stuff. Water is in play on numerous holes, and the Scottish Links style bunkers will gobble up any errant approaches. The Bermuda greens are some of the smallest on Tour. There will be plenty of clubbing down, lots of irons off the tee, and really there is little advantage to the bombers in the field: a 1-2 of Si-Woo and Ian Poulter last year is testament to that. This is the thinking man’s golf course, with precision approach play and steady chipping/scrambling the key to success.

There are many high points at Sawgrass for TV viewers to enjoy, but clearly the s 17th is the platform for most of the excitement. The famous island green plays host to the 137-yard Par 3, and while on any normal day the approach wouldn’t faze too many pros, the prestige of this event, and the occasional cross winds do add a layer of complexity to the proceedings. That, and the baying spectators sitting behind the green hoping for a few splashdowns. 

Last Year's Results from The Players Championship

Heading into the final round last year, the last pair out were JB Holmes and Kyle Stanley; experienced pros who have won before on the PGA TOUR but the pressure of leading a huge tournament clearly took hold, and the jitters set in as Stanley carded 75 and Holmes a disastrous 84 to end their hopes. Si-Woo Kim showed tremendous maturity to post a final round of 69, and that would prove to be enough with Ian Poulter and Louis Oosthuizen three back on -7.

What we’re looking for this week:

The forecast is calling for a near perfect week in Ponte Vedra, with lots of sunshine and temperatures hovering in the 82 - 89 degree range. It won’t be stiflingly hot though, with cloud cover breaking up the hot sun. One of Sawgrass’ best defenses is the wind, which has a habit of squalling around and changing direction even in the space of a single afternoon. The format is typically the same from day to day, with the breeze starting fairly benign in the morning before powering up through the afternoon. The early wave of players will head out in roughly 5 mph winds, and the late starters will come home in approximately 13 mph but it is worth noting that nobody gets the luxury of teeing off early in the first two days of any event. In other words, anyone that tees off early on Thursday will tee off in the afternoon on Friday and vice versa.   

Heading into the final round last year, the last pair out were JB Holmes and Kyle Stanley; experienced pros who have won before on the PGA TOUR but the pressure of leading a huge tournament clearly took hold, and the jitters set in as Stanley carded 75 and Holmes a disastrous 84 to end their hopes. Si-Woo Kim showed tremendous maturity to post a final round of 69, and that would prove to be enough with Ian Poulter and Louis Oosthuizen three back on -7.

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Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at BET365 because of their cash-out option during the event:

To win outright:

 

Bryson DeChambeau 50-1

 

Occasionally when players find themselves in the midst of a hot streak, it can fizzle out without anything substantial occurring but with Bryson DeChambeau, you suspect it could well end in something rather special. He has finished inside the top-five in three of his last four starts – an incredible run by anyone’s standards, and if anything, TPC Sawgrass looks ideally suited to his grip it and rip it style. The fact that he finished T3 at the correlating Pete Dye stretch at Harbour Town, with three rounds of 68 or better, is encouraging indeed. Bryson ranks 8th ON TOUR in Total Driving, 14th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 17th SG: Approach-the-Green. DeChambeau is on the verge of a win and while we usually lay off 50-1 shots, 50-1 is still a decent enough price on a pro on fire (Risking 0.2 units to win 10)

 

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Brian Harman 80-1 

 

One player with stacks of Pete Dye form is Brian Harman, who has registered top-10s in this event as well as the CareerBuilder Challenge and RBC Heritage, and has a T13 to his name at Crooked Stick in the BMW Championship of 2016. Dye layouts are designed to test the all-round game, and Harman’s ability to keep the ball in play off the tee gives him every chance to excel in the second half of holes. A final round of 81 at Quail Hollow has deflated his stock but a guy with seven top-10 finishes in just 13 starts this season simply cannot be ignored. Harman ranks 14th ON TOUR in Greens in Regulation and 18th Driving Accuracy and is capable of winning any event including this one (Risking 0.2 units to win 16). 

 

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Zach Johnson 55-1

 

We really wanted to play Zach Johnson in the H2H MATCHUPS THIS WEEK but he’s a -140 over Alex Noren and we don’t wager on anything at -140. If you can find Zach matched up against someone else, he comes highly recommended (he was als -190 over McGirt at 5DIMES) but we’ll settle for an outright win just in case he comes up big. The formbook suggests that Zach Johnson is on the verge of something excellent, and that has been backed up by the player himself who has been effusive with praise for his new club and ball set-up. He has made the weekend in 13/13 starts this term, and finished inside the top-25 in eight of those. It is just going to take all aspects of his game to click for the former British Open champion to add to his haul of titles. Perhaps Sawgrass comes as an ideal time for him then, as it’s a layout he clearly enjoys. Johnson is comin' in hot from every angle: tee-to-green game is terrific; he's T3 in proximity; putting wonderfully; ranks T1 in par-3 scoring and finally, he’s 12-for-13 with six top 20s at TPC Sawgrass (Risking 0.2 units to win 11 units). 

 

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Adam Hadwin 100-1

 

The Canadian can be relied upon to keep the ball in play off the tee, and that has aided some fine form this season and an excellent history at Pete Dye layouts. A run of 3-2-6 in the last three years of the CareerBuilder Challenge shows what he can do at an albeit more forgiving Dye stretch, and an outstanding run of form – top-25 in each of his last five strokeplay starts, including a top-10 in a WGC and T25 at The Masters – whets the appetite. We also like the fact he has won in Florida on Bermuda at Innisbrook, the home of the Valspar Championship, which is another layout that requires thought and precision. Hadwin ranks 21st ON TOUR in Approach-the-Green, 24th ON TOUR in Greens in Regulation and 25th on SG: Tee-to-Green (Risking 0.2 units to win 20 units).

 

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Head-to-head Matchups for The Players Championship

 

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle 

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS for The Players Championship

 

The H2H wagers below are for 72 holes:

 

#7031 Billy Horschel +149 over Matt Kuchar Pinnacle

What we’re finding in these H2H matchups is a lot of them are set up for bettors to take the wrong guy. In other words, most gamblers play favorites and Matt Kuchar is a household name that has been a staple on Tour for a very long time and that has had his name on the leaderboard in a tonne of events over the years on Sunday. However, Matt Kuchar is getting up there in age (39) and he’s had lots of trouble at this course in the past. Back in 2016, Kuchar was in tremendous form just before the Players at Sawgrass and he finished third that year. Bravo. However, last year he missed the cut and he also missed the cut in 2015. Kuchar has made 28 straight cuts, which in itself is remarkable but he’s finished 62nd, 58th, 40th and 51st in four of his last nine events. Kuchar’s stock is going to drop, as he ages and while 39 isn’t old by any stretch, it’s eight years older than Billy Horschel and Billy Ho is in fine form.

Horschel is a Florida native that has sort of ‘middling’ form at Sawgrass (MC-28-13-26-MC), but at least he heads home full of confidence this time around. The former FedExCup champion has really found something lately, with T5 at the RBC Heritage and T11 at the Texas Open backed by a fifth PGA TOUR title last time out at the Zurich Classic. Yes, that was a team event, but it’s fair to say he did the lion’s share of the work alongside Scott Piercy; especially on the greens, where he seems to have recaptured his best form lately. Again, Billy Ho’s last three events are a 5th, 11th and a win and unlike Kuchar, Horschel is now in his prime. The price here seals the deal (Risking 2 units to win 2.98 units). 

Top Asian: Si Woo Kim +450 Bet 365

This wager is available at BET365 prop bets and we trust that there is great value here on Si Woo Kim. The field he is up against is Byeong Hun An, Hideki Matsuyama, C.T. Pan, Hao Tong Li, Satoshi Kodaira, Whee Kim, Anirban Lahiri, Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Sung Kang. That’s nine others but you can count at a handful of those like Whee Kim, C.T. Pan and Sung Kang. Meanwhile, Kodaira, Li, C.T. Pan and Whee Kim are all making their debut on this course and first-timers here have a horrible history here. Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Byeong Hun An make their second appearance here and while both are capable, both are trending the wrong way. That leaves the great Hideki Matsuyama but he has not been the same since suffering an injury a while back and even if he regains his form, he’ll have to do it for four rounds and Kim could still beat him.

Si-Woo is Kim is very worth every time he tees it up at a Pete Dye course and is absolutely worthy of getting behind in his return to the spot of his signature win last season. Kim excels when the driver is taken out of his hands, and his game is perfect for the surgical precision that Sawgrass requires approaching the green. Kim is also starting to shed that “inconsistent” tag that has followed him around with three straight made cuts and 12 of 15 overall this season. Golf narratives are always kind of ridiculous, so the narrative that defending championships of this event can’t contend is foolishness. With two PGA TOUR titles to his name at the age of 21, it would be fair to suggest that Si-Woo is one of the most promising golfers on the planet. He was embroiled in a playoff a matter of weeks ago at the RBC Heritage, which he would ultimately lose, but it franks a lengthy roll call of form at Pete Dye layouts, which suggests he will be one to watch for years to come and at 4½-1, he is worthy of wagering on to beat the aforementioned group (Risking 2 units to win 9). 

#7036 Cameron Smith +110 over Marc Leishman Pinnacle

Although the Players isn’t a MAJOR, it is considered to be the “fifth” most prestigious event of the season. It draws an elite field and also draws the attention and viewership of casual fans. Marc Leishman is another very recognizable name that casual fans have seen at all the major events for well over a decade. He’s had great success on TOUR and now he’s matched up against a pro that only the die-hards follow. Cameron Smith is a GREAT talent that should probably be favored over Leishman but he’s not because of market perception, exposure and recognizability.

Truth be told, Leishman hasn’t fared well at this course since 2015. In 2016, he finished 64th and last year he missed the cut. He also missed the cut in two of his last five events with a 52nd place finish thrown in at the World Matchplay and a 37th place finish at the Mexico Championship. Marc Leishman is just not in great form and hasn’t played since missing the cut at Harbour Town one month ago.

Cameron Smith is on pace to be the next pro to join the ranks of the elite. Since October, Smith has finishes of 5th, 4th, 3rd, 1st, 18th, 6th, 5th and 5th to his name. There’s so much to like about him. The Aussie has played great golf on Pete Dye tracks, and his excellent short game should help him grind pars if his ball striking gets him into trouble. Smith’s top-five finish at The Masters will finally have identified Cameron Smith as a ‘proper player’ to a wider audience, but anybody who saw his T4 return from the US Open in 2015 will have been watching the Australian closely ever since. Since then, he secured victory alongside Jonas Blixt at the Zurich Classic – played at another Pete Dye layout at TPC Louisiana, and Smith also triumphed in his home Australian PGA Championship; a quality event which would have heaped so much pressure on his young shoulders. His closing 66 at Augusta confirmed what we already: Smith is the real deal but is still under the radar and we’re more than happy to get him at a price over Leishman. (Risking 2 units to win 2.20). 

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Others to consider to win outright or for DFS (Daily Fantasy):

 

Horse for the Course is

Zach Johnson:

 

Jordan Spieth, McIlroy, Day, Rickie, D.J. and Justin Thomas are legitimately favored here and one of those guys are usually the “Horse for the Course” but we’re so convinced that Zach Johnson is in line for a great week, that we’re going to use him. In case you missed it above, here is our Zach Johnson preview again: The formbook suggests that Zach Johnson is on the verge of something excellent, and that has been backed up by the player himself who has been effusive with praise for his new club and ball set-up. He has made the weekend in 13/13 starts this term, and finished inside the top-25 in eight of those. It is just going to take all aspects of his game to click for the former British Open champion to add to his haul of titles. Perhaps Sawgrass comes as an ideal time for him then, as it’s a layout he clearly enjoys. Johnson is comin' in hot from every angle: tee-to-green game is terrific; he's T3 in proximity; putting wonderfully; ranks T1 in par-3 scoring and finally, he’s 12-for-13 with six top 20s at TPC Sawgrass. Cheaper than the games’ “stars”, Zach is just as capable. 

 

Others to consider:

 

Patrick Cantlay

 

There are plenty in the game who believe Patrick Cantlay will win a major one day, so perhaps THE PLAYERS Championship could act as a nice gateway W. The signs are certainly there. He was T22 here on debut last year (Si-Woo was T23 the year prior to his victory), and he has a pair of top-10s at Pete Dye layouts in his most recent starts: T7 at the RBC Heritage and Zurich Classic. Cantlay can club down off the tee and find more fairways; giving his excellent approach game a chance to take center stage. Cantaly ranks 13th ON TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green – 19th in Greens in Regulation and 35th in SG: Approach. 

 

Emiliano Grillo 

 

The Argentine’s good form is travelling quite nicely at the moment. He contended at the European Tour’s Indian Open, before returning to US soil to finish T3 at the Houston Open, T16 at the RBC Heritage and T9 at Quail Hollow. Excellent off the tee (ranking 12th for Total Driving), Grillo naturally finds plenty of greens as a consequence, but unlike many tee-to-green merchants, he can actually putt quite well on his day too. He was T11 here 12 months ago, and it’s not hard to see why: the precision play required to succeed at this stretch suits him down to the ground.

 

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Total units wagered is 6.8 units and we'll update the results at the completion of this event. 

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