Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +128 BET365   +125 Sportsinteraction   +125 888Sport  +125

Washington +128 over Houston

6:45 PM EST. We are here to fade Justin Verlander (RHP - HOU) in his first big league start of the season, but before we get there, we’ll shine a light on young Mackenzie Gore (LHP - WAS), who is coming off a five-inning, 11-strikeout, shutout performance versus the A’s last Saturday. All four hits Oakland mustered were singles, and the A’s never advanced past second base while Gore was on the bump. Those 11 Ks tied a career-high, and Gore posted an impressive 20 swinging strikes on 90 pitches. Gore sports a 2.81 ERA that is backed by a tidy xERA of 2.69 and he has 23 Ks to just 5 BBs over 16 IP. Of the 90 pitches he threw in his last turn, 59 went for strikes.

Let’s get to Verlander, who labored through a 77-pitch rehab start with Double-A Corpus Christi last weekend. The 41-year-old is working his way back from a shoulder issue that caused him to miss the beginning of the season, and he gave up five earned runs on seven hits across four innings pitched. In two rehab starts, Verlander pitched seven total innings and he got rocked, giving up 11 ER and posting a bloated WHIP of 2.33. Verlander is expected to be on a pitch count tonight, but the Astros have not confirmed that report.

As for what to expect from Verlander, he saw a dip across the board in 2023 with his strikeouts dropping, his walks increasing, and his swing-and-miss rate continuing its year-over-year decline, which began in 2020. In short, dude is 41 and he’s not close to what he once was; however, there is still a premium to be paid because of Verlander’s pedigree, but that is a potential market inefficiency we are going to try to exploit.

Sherwood

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