Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -110 BET365 -103 Sportsinteraction -105 888Sport -110

San Diego -103 over Toronto

9:40 PM EST. Knuckleballer Matt Waldron (RHP - SD) makes his fourth start of the season after he did not factor into the decision versus the Dodgers in his turn last Saturday, where he allowed just one run over five innings. Waldron also allowed just two hard-hit balls versus Los Angeles, where he was dealing his knuckleball nearly 33% of the time. Aside from a rough first outing versus the Cardinals to start the season, Waldron has been solid since, allowing one earned run over his last 10.1 innings.

The Blue Jays are opening this series in San Diego with an "opener" of sorts, as Yariel Rodriguez (RHP - TOR) will get his second start of the season after he pitched 3.2 innings versus the Rockies last Saturday afternoon. Rodriguez put up solid surface numbers, but they did come against the lowly Rockies, and it’s worth remembering that coming into this season, Rodriguez hadn’t pitched competitively in nearly a year, and the Blue Jays are not going to let him pitch deep into games. Dude threw 68 pitches in his limited time last game, and the thought is that Rodriguez will give way to Bowden Francis after the Jays hinted at the possibility of them being a tandem. Regardless of how the Jays' rotation shakes out tonight, they cannot be a coin flip on the road in this spot. All the value here is on the hometown Friars.

Sherwood

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Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +128 BET365   +125 Sportsinteraction   +125 888Sport  +125

Washington +128 over Houston

6:45 PM EST. We are here to fade Justin Verlander (RHP - HOU) in his first big league start of the season, but before we get there, we’ll shine a light on young Mackenzie Gore (LHP - WAS), who is coming off a five-inning, 11-strikeout, shutout performance versus the A’s last Saturday. All four hits Oakland mustered were singles, and the A’s never advanced past second base while Gore was on the bump. Those 11 Ks tied a career-high, and Gore posted an impressive 20 swinging strikes on 90 pitches. Gore sports a 2.81 ERA that is backed by a tidy xERA of 2.69 and he has 23 Ks to just 5 BBs over 16 IP. Of the 90 pitches he threw in his last turn, 59 went for strikes.

Let’s get to Verlander, who labored through a 77-pitch rehab start with Double-A Corpus Christi last weekend. The 41-year-old is working his way back from a shoulder issue that caused him to miss the beginning of the season, and he gave up five earned runs on seven hits across four innings pitched. In two rehab starts, Verlander pitched seven total innings and he got rocked, giving up 11 ER and posting a bloated WHIP of 2.33. Verlander is expected to be on a pitch count tonight, but the Astros have not confirmed that report.

As for what to expect from Verlander, he saw a dip across the board in 2023 with his strikeouts dropping, his walks increasing, and his swing-and-miss rate continuing its year-over-year decline, which began in 2020. In short, dude is 41 and he’s not close to what he once was; however, there is still a premium to be paid because of Verlander’s pedigree, but that is a potential market inefficiency we are going to try to exploit.

Sherwood

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Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +122 BET365   +120 Sportsinteraction   +120 888Sport  +120

Kansas City +122 over Baltimore

7:40 PM EST. Alec Marsh (RHP - KC) is not the target here, but we’ll note that he brings a serviceable 4.32 ERA that is backed by an xERA of 3.90. He also sports a 1.08 WHIP through 16.2 innings, as he’s issued just three walks so far. The strikeouts aren’t there yet here in 2024, but Marsh has proven he can flame guys at the big league level in the past, so when the Ks do come, his numbers, which are already pretty good, are going to get even better.

We are here to fade Dean Kremer (RHP - BAL), who took this loss last Saturday after surrendering eight runs on 10 hits and a walk over four innings while striking out only three. Kremer has been prone to giving up the long ball this season, and he did so against the Brewers with Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers going yard, with the latter putting the Crew in the lead for good.

The propensity to give up home runs is not new for Kremer, as he posted a 1.41 HR/9 homerun rate in 2023. As for 2024, his 4.96 surface ERA is actually better than his bloated 6.40 xERA, while his swing-and-miss rate is down from 10.2% last year to a puny 8.8% thus far. While Kremer has only issued two walks in 16.1 innings thus far, the best walk rate of his career was 2.44 BB/9, and he posted a mark of 2.87 BB/9 in 2023, so a correction to the mean could be coming. Even if it doesn’t, Kremer is not worthy of being favored in this range on the road.

Sherwood

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Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -1½ +144 BET365 -1½ +140 Sportsinteraction -1½ +140 888Sport -1½ +140

Milwaukee -1½ +144 over St. Louis

8:15 PM EST. Freddy Peralta (RHP - MIL) is in mid-season form, as he’s coming off an 11-strikeout performance across six innings of one-run ball versus the Orioles last Friday night. Peralta was dominant in that start, and he brings a sparkling xERA of 2.52 into this start with an even more impressive 0.68 WHIP. His swing-and-miss rate is at its usual elite level of 14.4%, which just so happens to be where it was in 2023. Peralta is tied for second in the bigs with 26 punchouts in 17.2 innings, and he’s walked just two. When he’s on, Peralta is one of the best in the game, and right now, he looks to be all the way “on”.

In his last turn last Saturday, Kyle Gibson (RHP - STL) took the loss in Arizona, where he allowed four runs on six hits and three walks while striking out two batters over six innings. Gibson is now 1-2 in his new home in St. Louis, but perhaps more concerning are the pedestrian numbers he’s posted so far with a 6.16 ERA that is actually better than his inflated xERA of 7.96. Furthermore, Gibson has lost something, as his strikeout rate is down, as is his swing-and-miss rate. Across 19 innings, Gibson has just 11 strikeouts to six walks for a WHIP of 1.21. Dude is 36, and there are many red flags in Gibson’s profile. He’s a pitcher we are going to continue to target as one that needs to be faded.

Sherwood

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