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Posted at 10:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Houston ½ over Cleveland

8:10 PM EST. Logan Allen (LHP - CLE) is 3-1, but he is coming off a loss in his last start in which he gave up four runs on five hits and walked two over 4.2 innings. Allen could only deal 48 of 91 pitches for strikes, and he's been hit up for at least three runs in five of his six starts to begin the season. Allen has 26 strikeouts to 11 walks, and he’s been touched up by a 10.3% barrel rate and 15% HR/f. Translation: Dude is getting hit hard. A lefty-bashing Astronauts' offense knocking the ball around pretty good this week may not be a good slot for Allen. Houston owns an .814 OPS against LHPs. The Astros clubbed three home runs (while scoring 30 runs total) in three straight games from April 27-30.

Spencer Arrighetti (RHP - HOU) is not the play here, as we are far more interested in the Astros as a whole. Through 30 games, the ‘Stros are just 10-20, which is .333 baseball. While there are no guarantees, we doubt that Houston will be 20-40 after the dust settles on 60 games, and it’s far more likely they are closer to .500 than .300. As for Arrighetti, he was on the chopping block with Justin Verlander returning, but rather than return him to Triple-A Sugar Land, the ‘Stros sent down J.P. France.

On the surface, Arrighetti looks like a disaster with an ERA of 10.97, but his xERA is 4.36, and most importantly, his swing and miss rate is elite at 14.6%, and he has 15 Ks in 10.2 IP. He’s also been very unlucky with a Batting Average of Balls in Play of .500 and an unlucky strand rate of 52.8%, both on the extreme ends of the spectrum to the bad. A correction to the good could be coming to both if Arrighetti sticks around. To that point, there is a reason the Astros are giving Arrighetti another look, and it’s because there might be something here. Regardless, the Astros are undervalued, and they are a team that we are not going to be afraid to get behind with vigor as they claw their way back to at least .500 ball.

Sherwood

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