Posted at 12:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +155 BET365  +145 Sportsinteraction  +145 888Sport  +145

Washington +155 over N.Y. Rangers

7:07 PM EST. OT included. There has been much made about the Wild Card Washington Capitals and their record-setting negative goal differential heading into these playoffs and the lack of production from future Hall of Famer Alex Ovechkin through the first two games, as he has just one shot on net, but can we forget the Caps for a moment and discuss just how overvalued and much the Rangers have overachieved?

On the surface, the Rags are a juggernaut that dominated the regular season and clinched a playoff spot way back on March 26. They were ranked in the top 10 in both goals scored and goals allowed and one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup as the President's Trophy winners for the most points in the regular season, however, their analytics 5-on-5 were not stellar, and perhaps even average, at best.

The Rags ranked 19th in puck possession, 22nd in expected goals, and 21st in high-danger scoring chances. A team like that is not supposed to have home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs as the top seed. For some perspective, the Caps ranked 26th in puck possession, 25th in expected goals, and 24th in high-danger chances, yet the Rangers are thought to be totally superior to the Capitals in every way and are priced like it’s 1994 and Mark Messier is leading the charge.

Through the first two games of this series, the Caps have not looked out of place, and in fact, in Game 2, they dominated the puck possession numbers and had seven high-danger scoring chances to the Rags’ three. Look, we’re not saying Washington are world beaters, but they are far closer in quality to the Rangers than the market, the talking heads, and these odds would have you believe.

There is tremendous value to be had on Washington in this game, and oh by the way, they beat the Rangers in both games in D.C. this season, and they’ve played them hard in every one of the six games these teams have played in both the regular season and the playoffs. Win, lose, or draw, the juice on the Caps is worth the squeeze in Game 3.

Sherwood

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