BEST LINE: Pinnacle +104

Posted at 1:15 PM EST.

OT included. The sportsbooks have all the data they need. They know which teams are heavily bet on and they know which teams get little support from the betting public and they use that info when setting the lines. For whatever reason, the market loves the Penguins. Pittsburgh continues to be one of the most overvalued teams in the NHL. Indeed they have a scary power-play and they’re capable of winning any time but in no way do they deserve this billing in Nashville. Pittsburgh has dropped three of its last four and they blew two-goal leads in two of those. They also blew a three-goal lead in their opener against the Ducks but eventually won that game 6-4. 11 of Pittsburgh’s 22 goals this season have come on the power-play. They did not score a power-play goal in its past two games and lost them both. The blueprint for defeating this team is not rocket science. Stay out of the box and the Pens are very beatable because the same thing that has haunted them in the playoffs for years has not changed. Pittsburgh is weak defensively and they are weak in goal.

All Nashville does is win hockey games. They can crack down defensively and win or they can score goals and win. This is a well-balanced team that is so dangerous. Nashville is getting outstanding production from its top two lines and they can roll out any line and keep the pressure on. In fact, the Preds are the only team in the NHL that has not lost in regulation yet and they have played Dallas once and Chicago twice. With five wins and two OT losses, Nashville has picked up 12 out of a possible 14 points and it’s not a fluke. Here’s the kicker: James Neal was traded from Pittsburgh to Nashville and the Penguins did not have nice things to say about Neal. They called him a bad teammate among other things and Neal took it very personally. Neal’s new teammates love him and they say the accusations are completely unfounded. The entire team knows how important this game is to Neal and they figure to dig down deep in support of their new teammate, who just scored a hat trick in the last game. You all might remember what Steve Smith and the Baltimore Ravens did to the Carolina Panthers in a very similar situation just a few weeks ago. Sometimes it’s more than just another game and for James Neal and the Predators, that definitely applies here. Besides that, Nashville should not be a dog at home to the Penguins.