BEST LINE: Pinnacle +9½ -103

Posted at 12:45 PM EST

This line just keeps moving in Denver’s direction. Line opened at 7½, was at 8½ most of yesterday and is now up to 9½. It’s not often you get offered 9½ points with a quality team but that’s the case here and we’ll gladly bite because that is where the value lies. Just when the Chargers seem like they are an elite team, they struggle to beat the Raiders and then lose to the Chiefs in San Diego. Now the Chargers appear to be just another average team in a league full of them because of their last two results. That works to our advantage because we now get this quality team at an inflated price.

By contrast, Denver’s stock is extremely high after they buried the 49ers in prime time last week. Denver now plays in back-to-back prime time games and last week’s was especially emotional after Peyton Manning broke Brett Favre’s record. The anticipation in Denver was tremendous. It’s also worth noting that it was a Sunday night late game, which gives the Broncos even less time to recover and prepare for this short week. The Broncos are a great team but you are still going to pay a major premium on them here because of the over-reaction to last Sunday’s win and because they are so popular among bettors. Another reason this number is high is because the Chargers have some key defensive players on the rack. However, in San Diego’s win at Denver last year, the Chargers started Richard Marshall and Shareece Wright at cornerback and Thomas Keiser and Reggie Walker at outside linebacker. With San Diego’s top two cornerbacks in Brandon Flowers (concussion) and Jason Verrett (shoulder) nursing injuries, along with rookie pass-rusher Jeremiah Attaochu (hamstring), the Chargers' projected starting cornerbacks are Wright and Marshall. And the team’s projected starting outside linebackers are Jarret Johnson and Walker. The bottom line is Pagano trusts his backup players to know and understand his complex scheme. Those fill-in guys proved they can execute his game when they did so last year against Manning. Furthermore, Philip Rivers is 6-2 with wins in four of his last five starts at Sports Authority Field during the regular season. The Chargers won 27-20 in Denver last year. The Broncos won 28-20 in San Diego. The Broncos would later win in the divisional round when they beat the Chargers 24-17. A well-coached, balanced team with a strong record and an attack that knows how to execute its way down the field is being offered substantial (inflated) weight here in a short week. That doesn’t happen often and it instantly makes us buyers.