BEST LINES: Pinnacle +2½ -108 Bet365 +2½ -110 SportsInteraction +2½ -110 Betfair +2½ -115

Posted at 9:30 AM EST.

7:30 PM EST. From its open, we have seen this line swing 5½-points. Initially the Gators opened as a field-goal favorite and have since gone to a marginal pooch. We can surmise much of this is attested to Florida’s result last week, where the Gators as a 28½-point favorite were forced to survive overtime against Florida Atlantic in the Swamp. We have seen the Gators on several occasions overvalued against football teams they were projected to demolish. However, that is not Florida’s game. The Gators are primarily defense-oriented and play small ball. Lofty lines of what may be inconsequential measure are difficult for the most potent offenses to cover. Florida is not an offensive powerhouse. With the exception of their opening game victory against New Mexico State, the Gators are 0-3 against the spread as a favorite of 20 points or more. However, it is important to look at the teams Florida played in these scenarios: East Carolina, Vanderbilt and FAU. ECU has always been a football team that historically plays Power 5 conference teams tough. Vanderbilt, as we have covered all year, has been consistently undervalued but boast one of the most efficient and reliable defensive units in the SEC. Finally FAU, a team that has lost four of its nine defeats by a margin of a touchdown or less, two of which required overtime. Certainly, the Gators may have been looking ahead to this contest with Florida State and perhaps may have found themselves entrenched in a dog fight due to a lack of preparation and enthusiasm. The Gators have not beaten the Seminoles since 2012 but they came close to pulling off a win last year in Tallahassee, just falling short, 24-19. This time around we expect the ‘Gators to finish the deal.

This is an incendiary feud and it is more than just bragging rights on the line. Florida has a chance to solidify College Football Playoff contention with a win here, as they will get an opportunity to win the SEC outright after this game has concluded. Florida State, despite showcasing a 9-2 record, has been grossly unimpressive this year, as they have yet to earn a signature win to cap off their season. This may be their opportunity for that signature win but given the fact that the ‘Noles are just 2-2 on the road this year, we wouldn’t put too much faith in them when you consider that their two road victories were achieved against Boston College and Wake Forest. FSU struggled mightily against both squads in these aforementioned games and their defense had to bail them out in both occasions. Now the ‘Noles have to face an entirely different animal in a Gators defense that takes no prisoners and creates opportunities for Florida to win. Throw in the Gators' defensive front's obvious advantage against a scuffling FSU O-line, and it's a recipe for the money-burning ‘Noles to keep burning the money of their backers. 

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