BEST LINE: Pinnacle +13 -110

Posted at 11:00 AM EST

7:00 PM EST. There are a lot of big games on the college board today but if you dig down deep enough and look for value in these lesser games in weaker conferences, there’s a good chance of finding something strong. We trust we found it in this game. The Roadrunners are 1-2 in the conference and 2-5 overall. They opened with a win over Houston, which gave them some credibility but they have just one win since. That other victory occurred against FIU, 16-13. The Roadrunners were a 9-point choice in that game and barely scored 9 points. That’s the real issue here. UTSA’s offense can’t move five yards. In fact, in every key offensive category the Roadrunners are no better than 99th nationally. As a favorite they are 0-3 with that aforementioned three-point victory over FIU being one of those times they were chalk and failed. As a 17-point choice over New Mexico, the Roadrunners won 21-9 and as a five-point choice over Florida Atlantic, they lost outright. These Roadrunners cannot be trusted as a favorite and they certainly can’t be trusted as the chalk in this range with an offense that can’t move forward.     

Texas-El Paso (UTEP) features a talented running back in Aaron Jones, who has ran for 765 yards and 8 touchdowns on the year. As a whole, the Miners are averaging 237 rushing yards per game. It’s always beneficial to have a solid running game when taking back big weight. The Miners have weaknesses too. You don’t get offered 13 points against the Roadrunners unless you have glaring weaknesses and UTEP’s defense has allowed some pretty sick offensive numbers to weak teams. However, when they allowed the Monarchs of Old Dominion to hang 35 points in them and 357 yards of total offense, they scored 42 and went off for almost 500 yards. The Miners even put up 28 points on then #25 K-State. Lastly, UTEP is coming off a bye. They are rested for this in-state game and frankly, we don’t see where they are the inferior team. The Miners are 3-3 overall, they are 1-1 in the conference and they have a legit shot of winning outright. Take the points.