BEST LINES: Pinnacle -7½ -106 Bet365 -7½ -110 SportsInteraction -7½ -105 WilliamHill -7½ -110

Posted at 2:05 PM EST

#2 Arizona -7½ over #11 Xavier

Thursday, March 23, 2017 - SAP Center, San Jose, California

10:09 PM EST. Coming into the NCAA tournament, the Arizona Wildcats were overshadowed in the West Region by #1 Gonzaga, who many pundits picked to go to the Final Four, by #7 Michigan after the Wolverines miracle run through the Big 10 Tournament, and by #3 Oregon who was a trendy pick until star Canadian Chris Boucher tore is ACL in the Pac 12 Tournament. The Wildcats may have been an under the radar for a #2 seed coming into the tournament, but that is no longer the case.

The Wildcats are the biggest favorite on the board in the Sweet 16 but a closer look at the line shows they still might not be getting the respect they deserve. Arizona has some damn good wins this season over tournament teams like Michigan State, Oregon, USC, and they even beat the mighty Bruins twice! The market may be down on the Wildcats after they were given a real scare from Saint Mary's, but the fact that Arizona was able to rally, take the lead and never look back should serve them well the rest of the way. Arizona is more than capable but this wager is more about fading the dog than it is about spotting 7½-points with the favorite. 

After two wins to start the NCAA Tournament, the 11th seeded Musketeers are riding high. The Musketeers knocked off #6 Maryland in round one and then embarrassed Florida State 91-66 as a 7½-point pooch in Round 2. That dominating win over the Seminoles has left a lasting impression in the market but the final score was much more impressive than the performance. The moment the Seminoles went down by double digits, they quit. Xavier’s blowout victory over a perceived quality opponent has caused an overreaction that we now get to benefit from.

While a trip to the Sweet 16 looks nice on paper, it’s what the Musketeers do. Xavier has made the Sweet 16 twice since 2013 but they have not been able to break down that wall to the Elite 8 since joining the Big East. The problem is that aside from Villanova, this is still just a conference made up of leftovers and former mid-majors. Xavier's resume looks to have some nice wins, with victories over tournament teams like Providence, Creighton, Seton Hall and Butler but again, the problem is all of those teams also play in the overvalued Big East so their quality wins are as skewed as the mediocre teams that all beat up on each other. Against quality out-of-conference competition, the Musketeers didn't fair nearly as well, losing to both Baylor and Colorado before beginning Big East play. Finally, we cannot forget how Xavier stumbled into this tournament. The Musketeers won just one of their last seven games and that win was against DePaul, the worst team in the conference. Xavier used to be a spunky mid-major but now they think they belong with the big boys. They don’t and we're likely to find out one again why team like Xavier RARELY make it past the second weekend.    

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