BET365 O8 -110 888Sport +O7½ -118

Posted at 11:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Seminfinals

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics

TD Garden Center

Wager: Jayson Tatum 1Q over 7½ points

7:10 PM EST. The Boston Celtics start virtually every game the same way, just look back at their box scores in the postseason. Jaylen Brown is usually the first one to take a few shots, while Jayson Tatum tends to settle in and induce physicality, which usually amounts to plenty of first quarter rebounds. But when the going gets tough, like when the Celtics faced the best version of the Heat in Game 2, Tatum tends to score more in the first quarter. Cleveland cannot afford to go down 0-2 to Boston, even though that's very likely, nor can they afford to let Boston gain a large first quarter lead. Their defensive energy should be sky-high early to try and prevent that from happening, but that's when Tatum does his best work. In Game 2 against Miami, a quarter in which the Celtics were losing 28-27 when it concluded, Tatum scored 13 points. In this postseason the dynamic Celtics' forward only had one first quarter clunker, a 2-point showing in Game 4 of their first round series, but otherwise he's averaged a healthy 7.8 points through 5 games. 

In Game 1, Tatum got off to a slow start, missing early shots and mostly avoiding any attempts in the first six minutes as the offense needed to get acclimated back into the flow of the game, a natural consequence after being off for nearly a week. We don't see Tatum or the Celtics taking as long to find their rhythm early in this one. And even with a clunkier start in Game 1, they still scored 40 points in the first 12 minutes. There's a chance Jarrett Allen plays for Cleveland tonight, which would be a big defensive boost for the underdog, but it's unlikely. Reports tell us that Allen's been very "uncomfortable" with a recently incurred rib injury. Rib bruising isn't easy to play through, and even if he does suit up we doubt he'll be the same player. Boston's certainly been benefiting from his absence. In Game 1 the Celtics shot a ridiculous 59% inside the arc, constantly infiltrating the painted area and meeting little resistance. It also helped Tatum early. Despite a low-scoring game overall, Tatum still found a way to put up 7 points in the first quarter, even though he never hit a single three-pointer early or in the entire contest (0-5).

If there's one game where we should expect Jayson Tatum to come out aggressively, it's tonight. Boston's early dominance is a big reason why their record and ATS marks are so high, a team that overwhelms its opponents on both sides of the court with their plethora of talent. Kristaps Porzingis won't play again tonight either, which means the big-bodied Tatum will be active in the front court nice and early, and very likely featured more than his colleagues. We'll take a shot for 1 unit.

Farley

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