Posted at 11:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle N/A BET365 O20½ -120 Sportsinteraction O20½ -115 888Sport N/A

Jonas Valanciunas over 20½ points/rebounds

Best Odds: -115 at Sportsinteraction

9:40 PM EST. Oddsmakers haven't smartened up to all the nuances that occur when the Pels are without Zion Williamson. The former Duke superstar has been on a tear for his team, finally embracing the role of New Orleans' #1 scorer and star. Discounting the final contest of the regular season, where Williamson shot just 13 times in a game the Pels didn't seem to care about, the burgeoning superstar averaged 30 ppg in his last 5 starts. And his team needed it. Brandon Ingram is coming off a knee bruise and hasn't been in-rhythm, CJ McCollum has been hot and cold, and other cogs like Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III have been fantastic in spurts, but they're not focal points of the Pels' production. New Orleans will need many of their supporting cast members to step up, just like they did in their victory against the Kings on Friday. Jose Alavarado, Naji Marshall and Larry Nance Jr. all scored in the double-digits, and Ingram finally had a productive showing (10-20, 24 pts). But one man stood out among the rest, as he always does when there's no Zion.

Jonas Valanciunas dropped 19 points and 12 rebounds against Sacramento, filling a crucial void in the front court without their star. The big-man is an underrated center in the NBA because he's surrounded by a roster that's among the most talented in the association, full of shooters and two-way savages in the front and back court. Full season, Valaciunas averaged 21 points and rebounds per game; 12.2 points and 8.8 boards, to be exact. That's why oddsmakers continue to post his line at around 20-21 for that aforementioned combo, but his production changes drastically when Zion is out.

Full season, Zion has missed 12 games. In those 12 games, Valanciunas averaged 27.2 points/rebounds, many times scoring well into the 20s. No Zion means there's a giant piece of front court-dominance that's missing for the Pels. The former first pick in the 2019 draft shoots 57% from the field, mostly because the majority of his shots are right at the rim. His absence clears the way for the 6'11, 265 pound Valanciunas, a Lithuanian who's not afraid to clang and bang in the paint whenever it's needed. And sometimes even when it's not needed and he just wants to impose his will. We love that for him tonight. 

The OKC Thunder are built very similar to the Kings; small, quick, fast-paced, but they lack physicality. Chet Holgrem tries, but the 7-footer probably isn't 200 pounds soaking wet, something the well-built Valanciunas can take advantage of early and often. In their last matchup of the regular season, Jonas only played 11 minutes and shot 4 times; that doesn't count. In his other two contests against OKC, he stacked up 51 points/rebounds. And in his last 6 games without Williamson, Valanciunas averaged 28.8 points/rebounds. Expect the Pels' center to be heavily featured and relied upon in the painted area, giving him plentiful opportunities to eclipse today's line by a mile.

Farley

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