Posted Wednesday at 10:30 AM EST. 

Saturday. July 30 - Strawweight 3 rounds - Phillips Arena - Atlanta, Georgia - PPV

8:45 PM EST. Rose Namajunas is the UFC's current darling at 115 LBS, a crown she choked away from Paige VanZant last December. Namajunas has four official fights in the UFC and competed with Carla Esparza for the promotion's first Strawweight (115 LB) Championship at the end of The Ultimate Fighter 20. Rose entered that fight as a small pooch and was submitted by rear-naked choke in the third round. For her rebound fight, Namajunas finished an overwhelmed Angela Hill with a knee to the body as a -350 favourite. That gimme fight set up Namajunas to be the fall girl for mainstream star Paige VanZant.

As is often the case, the UFC's best-laid plans go awry when the cage door closes. Rose finished VanZant with a rear-naked choke in the fifth round of their main event tilt. It was a high profile win for Namajunas, who actually entered the fight as a +125 underdog. The price on VanZant that night was greatly inflated for a number of reasons including her opponent being the most recognizable woman in the division by far. Rose beat the face of the franchise and all that victory did was inflate her asking price at the window.

In her last fight at UFC on FOX 19, Namajunas avenged her first loss to Tecia Torres in a close decision. Namajunas opened as a -140 favourite for that fight and was hammered all the way up to -200 with her new found notoriety and a co-main event slot on free TV. In her post fight interview, she was very emotional when revealing she had thoughts of quitting the sport during that very tough training camp. Straw-weight Champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk recently questioned Namajunas's mental state saying, “her head is not really on point, she's not that strong mentally”. Not very high praise from the most dominant woman in the division. Namajunas puts on a real “tough girl” image that is often cringe worthy to watch and goes by the nickname “Thug”. We can't help but wonder if maybe she's overcompensating for something.  

Her opponent, Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters this fight at 9-0 including a 2-0 start to her UFC career. We love this matchup for Kowalkiewicz, as she comes into this bout as a relative unknown. In her first fight for the organization at UFC on FOX 17 against Randa Markos, Kowalkiewicz closed as a +140 pooch. She is primarily a fast moving striker who doesn't like to stand still. She rejected Markos's takedown attempts and was able to gain dominate position multiple times after a scramble on the mat. Karolina got the unanimous decision and for her next fight the UFC put her power punching to the test when she faced a tough out in Heather Jo Clark, who has never been finished in her 12-fight career. Kowalkiewicz threw everything but the kitchen sink at Clark and won by unanimous decision as a big 3-1 favourite. She now goes from a 3-1 favourite to a 2-1 dog and the latter is not warranted.  

We expect Namajunas will come out and try to dictate the pace early. She’ll try to get a takedown to set up a submission but Karolina is a smart fighter and should be able to fend her off with her strong counter-punching and takedown defense. Kowalkiewicz only gets stronger as the fight goes on and she has a way of mentally breaking down her opponents, which does not bode well for Rose Namajunas. The total in this three-round fight is o2½ -262, which strongly suggests it is going the distance. That also bodes well for this dog, in what we’re calling the biggest overlay on the card. 

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