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Posted at 11:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

L.A. Angels over Kansas City

9:38 PM EST. We’re here to “buy low” on Reid Detmers (LHP - LAA), who clocked a 1.19 ERA over his first four starts, but he owns a bloated 8.15 mark since. Detmers was a trendy breakout pick last year that didn't deliver, but remove his horrid July-Aug stretch (29 ER in 25.1 IP), and you get a 3.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. His 1st half K-BB% and swing-and-miss rate looked like a step forward, and it's even better this year, where it sits at a tremendous 13.4%.

Even with the rough recent ride, Detmers' xERA is 3.24, he has 44 Ks to 40.1 IP, and he has just 14 walks. Detmers’ Batting Average of Balls in Play has been unlucky at nearly .300, and his groundball rate is solid, so a correction to the good could be coming in that department. Tonight could be just what the doctor ordered, as Detmers draws a Kansas City Royals nine that has struggled against lefty pitching (.623 OPS, .120 ISO).

The Royals will answer with Michael Wacha (RHP - KC), who took the loss against Texas last Saturday, where he allowed seven runs on nine hits and one walk while striking out three batters over just 3.2 innings. It was Wacha’s second-round start in a row, as he also gave up nine hits over 5.2 IP in his April 28th start versus the Tigers, where he also struck out just three. Wacha has seen a decline of nearly 2% in his swing-and-miss rate since making the move from San Diego to Kansas City, and he is just not pitching well enough to be favored on the road against a feisty Angels team that is 13th in Average and 13th in Sluggin% vs RHP. The Halos are under the radar, and they are underpriced. Yeah, we’re “buying”.

Sherwood

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