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Posted at 11:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Minnesota over L.A. Angels

4:07 PM EST. Reid Detmers (LHP - LAA) is enjoying a breakout season, and while we aren’t here to take that away from him, we can’t help but notice he’s priced as a coin flip today against a true front-line starter in Pablo Lopez (RHP - MIN), but we’ll get to him in a moment. Back to Detmers, who is coming off his worst turn of the year, where he took the loss after giving up 4 ER on 6 H over 7 IP versus Baltimore on Monday. It was the second straight start that Detmers gave up at least six hits, but this time around he only struck out four while also walking three.

The Twins have struggled to score runs this season, but they have hit lefties well, batting .276, which is fourth best in MLB, and they are coming off a day in which they finally broke out the bats with a 16-run performance in a 16-5 win. The Twinkies were seeing beach balls yesterday, and they likely cannot wait to get back to the ballpark today.

As for Lopez, his surface stats are not that impressive, as he’s just 1-2 with a 4.39 ERA, but his xERA is 3.18 and the strikeouts are still there with him posting 29 Ks in 26.2 IP across five starts. Lopez’s strikeout rate is still 27.4%, almost in line with the 29.2% career-high he posted in 2023, as is his swing and miss rate of 13.4%, which is still the second highest he’s posted after last year’s 14.5%. Lopez is still an ace, but he’s not priced like it today and we’re going to try to take advantage of that market inefficiency.

Sherwood

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