Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +105 BET365 +100 Sportsinteraction +100   888Sport +100

N.Y. Yankees +105 over Houston

8:10 PM EST. Make no mistake that Carlos Rodon (LHP - NYY) was shaky as hell last year. What the f**k happened here?! First, Rodon missed the first half with left forearm and back strains and then missed another two weeks with a bum hamstring. When he did pitch, nothing clicked. It was a broad-based skills collapse—plus terrible strand% luck that eventually yielded horrific results. However, there are some silver linings: his velocity is intact; his xBB% held; small sample but...yikes. Good news is that we get Rodon with his stock low. More good news is that Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said that the internal reports on Rodón have been very positive. We also know that he began to throw under the watch of staff members, well ahead of the official Feb. 14 report date for Bombers’ pitchers and catchers. Anytime a player reports early and is working hard, it’s a good sign. Rodon pitched 19.1 innings over five starts in Grapefruit League action, posting a 4.19 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 16:5 K:BB. That’s a good sign too.

One of the league’s most overvalued starters goes for the Astronauts today. Cristian Javier (RHP - HOU) took a major step backwards with a mid-season stretch of eight, count ‘em, eight disasters in 11 starts. His fastball lost some zip, he missed fewer bats, and his K% crash allowed his fly-ball tilt to morph into bigger HR problems. Javier’s groundball/fly-ball rate over a large sample size the past two years covering 300 innings was 25%/55%. It is worth noting that Javier lost 15 pounds in the winter to help him be more fluid in his delivery, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be better. It means he’s just not eating hamburgers and pizza pies right now. As a favorite in this range against a team like the Yanks, Javier is a very good fade target. 

Sherwood

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