San Diego @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI -1½ +165 over San Diego
 BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +165 Bet365 -1½ +165 SportsInteraction -1½ +155 5DIMES -1½ +165

Posted at 10:25 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Colin Rea’s impressive control gains and HR-prevention fueled this sinkerballers 1.08 ERA in 75 IP at AA last year before he was called up. He was just modestly effective as he advanced to AAA and SD before a year-ending forearm strain. Rea’s average secondary stuff says his command and groundball rates are crucial to any success he might have. In 72 frames this year, Rea has a BB/K split of 29/54. He has a low 6% swing and miss rate. His groundball rate is decent at 46% but his line-drive rate of 26% is not. Rea comes in with a 5.02 ERA and 4.66 xERA and that’s after pitching a high majority of his games at pitchers’ parks. He will have no such luxury here. In his 13 starts this season, Rea has pitched at home in Petco, an extreme pitchers park, 10 times. One of Rea’s three road games came at Coors in which he lasted three innings and saw five of 11 baserunners score. The other road games were in Philly against a weak offense and at Wrigley with the wind blowing in. He lasted five innings at Wrigley after allowing four runs.   

A raw-tools bet by the Royals in the second round of 2013 that looks to be paying off, Cody Reed broke out in a huge way across two levels last year and saw himself packaged alongside Brandon Finnegan and John Lamb for Johnny Cueto. At 6’5” and 220 pounds, Reed has an ideal pitching frame and features two pitches that get plus-plus grades in his mid-90s fastball and mid-to-high-80s slider. The fastball can touch 97 and shows solid late life while coming in with good deception because of a low, three-quarters arm slot. The slider is a true out-pitch for him, which similarly showcases biting, sweeping tilt. Reed also mixes in a low-80s curveball that looks to be an average offering at prime. Reed’s command and control of his arsenal keeps getting better. In his major-league debut last week at Minute Maid Park against the Astros, Reed went seven full and allowed four runs but all four runs were the result of two, two-run shots. He struck out nine batters. Playing rookies are risky but this one is going to be relevant at some point in his career and it could come swiftly because he has that much talent. There is also a nice reward in playing rookies before their stock goes up. Colin Rea only wishes he had this kids’ talent.    

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Our Pick

CINCINNATI -1½ +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)

Cincinnati -1½ +181 over Baltimore
Boston +113 over Minnesota
Miami +133 over Oakland