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Posted at 9:30 PM EST. 

Twins starter Tommy Milone (elbow) was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left elbow Monday, Aug. 3. According to Manager Paul Molitor, Milone's DL trip was precautionary, as Milone’s elbow was “in good shape” structurally. Milone has made two starts since his return and the Twins have won them both. He defeated Baltimore and Cleveland while allowing just eight hits and four runs in 10.1 innings. Milone struck out seven and walked just one batter. Milone is nothing more than an average pitcher but he’s really been able to keep hitters off balance all year aside from a rough stretch of three games right before he was placed on the DL. This wager however, is more about backing Minnesota as a whole while fading Tampa’s starter.  

Minnesota has won six in a row including the first two games of this series in which they defeated Rays' starters Nathan Karns and Chris Archer. They now take a step down in class when facing Drew Smyly. Smyly may have some value a little later but right now as the chalk in this range he has none. Smyly's two starts since his return from the DL have not been strong. In his first outing, he allowed five earned runs in four innings. His second start looked much prettier on paper, as he held the A’s scoreless through 5.2 innings in Oakland. The market is buying that latter start but we’re not. Smyly struck out two A’s batters. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate was 27%/32%/41%. His line-drive rate over his two starts back is a resounding 36%. The Twins are seeing beach balls these days and they’re also better against southpaws. Smyly was declared out for the season in May with a left shoulder labrum injury. In his two rehab starts, he threw a lot of pitches (74 in 4.1 innings on August 6, 94 in four innings on August 11) and he labored to get outs. The sample size on Smyly since his return from the DL is obviously small but the results have been extremely shaky, as he works his way back from a difficult injury. Smyly is a big risk but that last misleading start has him very overpriced here against one if the hottest teams in baseball.

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