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Posted at 9:30 PM EST. 

2:05 PM EST. The Rangers had a chance to slow down this freight train in the opener but a blown save in the ninth led to a defeat. The Blue Jays rode that momentum into a 12-4 walloping to put the Rangers on their list of battered victims. The Rangers have to be feeling completely up against it here. It’s almost as if they know they’re going to lose while the Jays are coming to the park today expecting to score another 10 runs or more. That may happen against Yovani Gallardo.

Starting half your games at Globe Life Park isn't typically a way to improve a pitcher's ERA, but recent acquisition Yovani Gallardo has been the exception to the rule, posting a 3.25 ERA and looking like the budding ace we knew a few years ago. How real is this resurgence? Well, let's just say it's more smoke and mirrors than skill. Gallardo's velocity, which peaked at 93 mph in '11, has steadily fallen and now sits around 90 mph. The corresponding drop in K’s/swing & miss % isn't surprising. He's also given back some control gains he made last season. In 149 frames, Gallardo has walked 55 batters while whiffing just 97. His swing and miss rate is just 7% overall but is down to 5% over his last five starts. Gallardo’s luck cannot hold up. His 79% strand rate is not only baffling but it’s absolutely unsustainable. Gallardo is constantly behind in the count and ultimately walks too many batters. He strikes out few and has carried a 1.50 WHIP since the All-Star break into a string of starts with extreme luck. Over his last five starts, Gallardo has a BB/K split of 9/14 over 28 innings with a 25% line-drive rate. 

The magic Gallardo displayed in the first half is wearing off big time. His BABIP (batting average of balls in play) has regressed and his strikeout rate has plummeted. The biggest issue for Gallardo has been that he’s never presented hitters with three separate velocity bands about which to worry. It’s always been 85-91 mph with his fastball and slider and the mid-to-high 70s with his curveball. He does not have enough separation between his fastball and slider. In other words, it’s becoming easier to isolate his fastball from his other pitches. This trend can be seen in his swinging-strike rate on his slider and curveball, both of which have fallen below 9% for the first time since 2008, which was an injury-shortened campaign. He’s become a guy who relies on pure luck and thus his BABIP drives many of his statistics. Nothing has been good since the All-Star break and the fact that Gallardo struggles with his command only exacerbates the BABIP-reliance problem. Does it really matter who’s pitching for the Jays? We think not.  

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