BEST 5-inning LINES: Pinnacle +130 SportsInteraction +130 Betfair +115 Bet365 N/A

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

Great spot for the D-Backs after the Astros just completed an emotionally charged, three-game sweep over the Angels. Houston started that series a game behind L.A. for first place in the AL West but they’re now two games up. The D-backs sneak into town under much less hype and offer up some great value in this first game. Arizona is coming off a three-game sweep in Seattle in which they scored 20 runs against three very decent starters. The D-Backs now get a break in facing Scott Feldman in a hitter’s park. After missing close to two months with a meniscus tear, Feldman was recently activated and inserted back into the rotation. Feldman has a lousy 41 K’s in 73 innings. His 26% line-drive rate is a bottom five mark in MLB. His swing and miss rate in his last start was 3%. Since returning from injury, Feldman has a 3.38 ERA but don’t let that fool you because his xERA is 4.77. This is the second best starter by a wide margin laying an inflated price.

Rubby De La Rosa remains a volatile young starter that the market continues to overlook. That is going to provide us with outstanding profit potential until the market catches up since De La Rosa is showing signs of being on the verge of breaking out. He has increased his swing and miss rate from 8.0% in 2014 to 11.7% so far in the first half of 2015 to 13% since the All-Star break. That 1 year jump is the second-highest in MLB. In addition, his first pitch strike % has jumped from 52% to 61% (biggest increase in MLB). And his ball% has declined from 38% to 35%. Blame a crazy 21% hr/f for his 4.52 ERA. Once he figures out lefties a bit more and gets some hr/f normalization, De La Rosa will emerge as one of the top starters in the NL. By that time, the market will have discovered just how good he is. We’re telling you now how good he is and because this wager is based solely on De La Rosa’s superiority over Feldman, we’ll play if in the first five innings only. 

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