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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

The Dodgers lost the opener of this series last night, 10-6. They’re now 16-22 on the road and overall, they’re under .500 against teams above .500. Carlos Frias is a pitcher that we’re watching closely and he’s going to have some value at some point but as the chalk in this game, it is not the time. Frias has a weak 21/39 BB/K split in 65 innings. His 1.52 WHIP is also weak. However, his underlying skills (62% first-pitch strike rate and a 10% swing and miss rate) strongly suggests more K’s and less walks. He also has a rock-solid 55% groundball rate. Frias posted an ugly 5.81 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in May. Coming into this start, his ERA is 4.31. That’s still not pretty but much better than a month ago. The issue is his line-drive rate of 28% over his last five starts, 38% in his last start and 23% on the year. We all know how line-drives play at Chase Field, which is certainly not a suitable park for Frias. Besides that, Frias does not deserve to be favored over Rubby De La Rosa.

Rubby De La Rosa had the profile of a volatile young pitcher coming into 2015. Some might continue to think that way given his 4.69 ERA so far in 2015. Don't follow suit. He has a strong 67%/10% dominant start/disaster start split. In fact, he has put up progressively better skills with each passing month. De La Rosa has featured elite command sub-indicators and a high groundball rate over the last month with 8.4 K’s/9, a 56% GB%, 12% swing and miss rate and a 65% first-pitch strike rate. Over his last three starts, De La Rosa has pitched seven full innings or more in all of them. Over that span covering 22 innings, which includes one start at home and one at Coors Field, he has surrendered just 18 hits and two earned runs. To make that even more impressive, he’s accomplished that by throwing just 92, 103, and 97 pitches respectively over those three starts. Effective and efficient with an xERA of 3.23, buy-low targets don't get any better than De La Rosa.        

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