BEST LINE: Pinnacle +115

Posted at 11:35 AM EST.

How can we not take the Royals here? Kansas City is doing everything right. Its ability to get on base and manufacture runs has come into play throughout the playoffs and the World Series. We saw another example of that yesterday when they scored a first-inning run in textbook style. Get ‘em on, get ‘em over and get ‘em in. Now the Royals will face the Giants riskiest starter in Ryan Vogelsong. Vogelsong was whacked at AT&T Park by the Cardinals in in the NLCS when he allowed seven hits and four runs in just three innings. Another outing similar to that one would come as no surprise. Skepticism has surrounded Vogelsong his entire career and even more so after his improbable comeback in 2011. That skepticism is warranted. He allowed more line drives—a lot more line drives—than he had in the previous two seasons. Vogelsong's control has strayed a bit and his strikeout rate is also on the decline. In two postseason starts, Vogelsong’s swing and miss rate is a brutal 5%. In fact, all of his skills down the stretch and into the post-season, from groundball rate to swing and miss rate to WHIP and to control, are well below league average. The Royals are getting close and when they smell blood, they thrive. They smell blood now.

Jason Vargas has allowed just five hits in 11.1 innings in the post-season thus far. That was against the Angels and Orioles and things do not get more difficult against the Giants. The Royals have won both his post-season starts and it sure doesn’t hurt Vargas that he has the league’s best bullpen waiting in the wings. In other words, these Royals starters are focused on going five or six strong and it makes their job a lot easier. Vargas isn’t going to blow away hitters but his consistency grade and xERA show his steadiness. He’s a reliable pitcher that almost always keeps his team in the game and gives them a chance to win. Vargas has also turned it up in the post-season with a fantastic 12% swing and miss rate in those two starts. The Giants could get caught pressing here. For the first time in the post-season San Fran is behind the eight ball and that’s a completely different mindset than being up a game or two. In the end, we get the better starter, the better pen, the better offense and momentum. Best of all, we get a tag.