BEST LINE: Pinnacle -107

Posted at 11:00 AM EST

Jonathan Niese is having another predictable season. He comes in with a 3.48 ERA, a 3.79 xERA and a BB/K split of 43/111 in 155 innings. Niese is a risk but his solid command, strong groundball tilt of 50% and consistent history presents potential reward. Truth is, this one has nothing to do with backing Niese and everything to do with fading Brad Penny.  

For whatever reason, the Mets’ bats thrive against the Marlins. In fact, New York has scored 6, 9, 5, 7 and 11 runs respectively this season in their last five games against the Fish. The Mets figure to put up another crooked number here. Penny has made two starts this year. Prior to that, Penny had not started a game since 2011. He also has not registered a K rate over 5.8 K’s/9 since 2006. In 13 innings this season (2 starts, 2 relief appearances), Penny has a swing and miss rate of 3%. Over those 13 innings he has walked nine batters. His WHIP is 1.80, his ERA is 5.40 and his xERA is 5.90. Brad Penny is an “old 36” and he’s also out of shape. Penny’s chances of success here about the same as Pearl Jams’ chances of selling out a concert in Israel. Anytime we can fade Penny spotting a cheap price you can pencil us in and we make no exception here.