BEST LINE: Pinnacle -118

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

What we have here is two pitchers, Jonathan Niese and Roenis Elias, both with misleading surface stats and the former may be in big trouble. Niese comes in with a 2.96 ERA but his xERA since May is 4.09 and even that may be a bit flattering. Niese has an overall swinging strike rate of 6% and just 73 K’s in 109 innings. Last year he was diagnosed with a partially torn rotator and missed almost two months. This year, he’s having shoulder issues again. He left his 4th of July start after being hit in the back with a line drive. The Mets thought they had dodged the proverbial bullet when that injury was diagnosed as a bruise, but the same shoulder issues that slowed him this past spring are sidelining him again. Niese has a 1.62 WHIP and 5.88 ERA over his last two starts and he’ll now face a Mariners team that is 21-12 against southpaws this season.

Roenis Elias quietly continues to post elite skills that are flying under the radar. He posted outstanding under the hood stats in both May and June. An adjustment earlier in games could help him take a noticeable step forward, as Elias is in the top 15 in the league in skills (swinging strike rate, xERA) the second and third time through the order. In other words, he gets stronger as the game goes on. The Mets' bats are cold with just one run scored over their last two games and this park is very unkind to struggling batters. On paper, this pooch may look appealing but we see an undervalued favorite.