BEST LINE: Pinnacle over 8½ -120

Posted at 5:00 PM EST.

John Danks is 3-2 at U.S Cellular Field with an ERA of 2.96. How can that be? This is an extreme hitter’s park but Danks has somehow found a way to keep his ERA under 3. It can’t last. Back in the day, you could count on Danks for double-digit wins and an ERA under 4.00. Unfortunately, he last met those benchmarks in 2010. More recently, Danks missed a year with a shoulder injury, and hasn’t pitched well when he’s been on the mound.Danks is not the same pitcher he was before the injury. After struggling in his abbreviated 2012 season, his control returned to normal but even that is trending the wrong way this season. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate did not. He used to dominate LH hitters, but that hasn’t been the case the past 2+ years. Danks has yet to recover his pre-injury velocity; while his average fastball was 91.7 mph in those days, he was at 89.3 last year and is at 88 MPH this year. In 82 frames, Danks has an awful BB/K split of 32/58. Danks 1.32 WHIP, 40% groundball rate, low K rate and increasing walk rate is not the profile of a pitcher with an ERA under 3. Regression in Danks’ ERA is inevitable.

Matt Cain is very similar in that he, too, could be counted on for consistently and double-digit wins. This season Cain has experienced a steep skills erosion. Cain has walked 23 batters and struck out 46 in 59 innings. In his last start, Cain walked five and struck out four. His swing and miss rate has never been lower and now sits at 7%. In 10 starts this season, Cain has just three pure quality starts. What’s even more troubling is that a tiny 19% hit rate with runners on base has prevented further damage. Don't expect him to be able to sustain a sub-4 ERA. In the end, we have two recognizable pitchers with misleading ERA’s. Both starters are showing no signs of turning things around and both these teams are very capable of putting up crooked numbers. The venue, the starters, the bullpen and the weather conditions all favor the over and that’s the way we’re playing it.