BEST LINE: Pinnacle +128

Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

The Braves won 7-3 last night over the Angels but that was a misleading score, as L.A. had 12 hits and plenty of opportunities to blow the game wide open early on. Atlanta could not muster a damn thing for five innings off of Hector Santiago, one of the biggest stiff starters in the league. The Braves are on a current run of just five wins in its past 12 games and will send out their ace in this one, Julio Teheran. Teheran is 6-4 in 14 starts with a 2.97 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP.  Teheran has exciting skills, but he's not yet elite. His pretty surface stats have been aided by very lucky hit and strand rates of 24% and 81% respectively. A 1½-variance between ERA and xERA usually doesn't last very long. The strikeout and walk ratios are very good but Teheran’s 78 K’s in 97 frames says he’s not blowing away hitters. Teheran also gives up a ton of fly-balls, which puts HR damage into play, especially once that hit rate normalizes. Teheran definitely has the skills in place to be a productive pitcher. His ability to limit walks coupled with some strikeout potential at a young age should be coveted. However, his underlying skills haven't backed up the elite numbers he's posted so far, making him an overvalued pitcher, especially against a guy like Cole Hamels.

Hamels is not good, he’s great. Pitching half his games at Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, Hamels comes into this one with a 3.07 ERA after 10 starts. He has struck out 70 batters in 67 frames while walking just 22. In four road starts, Hamels is 1-1 with an ERA of 1.95, an oppBA of .223 and a xERA of 2.16, which is the best xERA of any starter in baseball with four or more road starts. Hamels has thrown seven straight pure quality starts. He has a 1.85 ERA over his last six starts, along with an elite batted ball profile of 52%/18%/29% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball. For whatever reason, Hamels’ has fallen off the radar of elite starters but it’s not justified. He’s been as good as Felix Hernandez and others but has just two wins because of a true lack of run support. He remains a top-shelf pitcher at a second-tier price. Invest.