BEST LINE: Pinnacle +128

Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

We’re not jumping off this bandwagon just yet. Kansas City has now won seven in a row while outscoring the opposition 45-17 over that span. They went into Chicago this past weekend and outscored the South Side 22-5 over the three-game sweep. The Royals are hitting a league-leading .345 over the past seven games and they remain the toughest team in the major leagues to strike out. In fact, K.C. batters have struck out a league low 173 times. Jason Vargas has been as steady as ever for the Royals. He’s thrown 11 pure quality starts in 14 games. Vargas has also seen an uptick in strikeouts with 27 over his past 33 innings and he’s been near flawless on the road with a 1.60 ERA after six road starts. His road dominance will not continue but Vargas and the red-hot Royals definitely offer up some value here against Justin Verlander and the Tigers.

Verlander is not the dominant pitcher one has come to expect but he’s priced like one in almost every start. He sports a 4.61 ERA and a 67/39 K/BB after 92 frames and it’s not because of bad fortune. Verlander’s groundball rate is in serious decline and has hit a career low of 38% over his past five starts. On the year, Verlander has a 1.51 WHIP but that is also trending the wrong way to an eye-opening 1.83 WHIP over his past six starts. Verlander’s decline in K’s is the result of diminished velocity. According to PITCHf/x, his average 93.1 MPH fastball is the lowest of his career and marks the fifth straight season of velocity loss. He’s also walking more batters and has in fact walked 15 over his past 32 innings. Verlander has close to 1900 career innings and it’s started taking a toll. The Tigers have dropped four of his past five starts and there is nothing in Verlander’s pitching profile that suggests a rebound is coming anytime soon. The Royals are seeing beach balls and we’ll continue to ride them out until they cool off.