BEST LINE: Pinnacle +103

Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

Jason Hammel taking back a tag of any kind against Tom Koehler must be bet. Koehler comes in with a 3.68 ERA and an oppBA of .229 but it’s nothing more than a mirage. In 78 innings, Koehler’s BB/K split of 35/56 is bordering on troublesome and does not in any way support his surface stats. A mediocre K rate coupled with poor control rarely results in long-term success. Koehler brings both to the table. Koehler’s WHIP of 1.28 is worse than the league average but note that his WHIP of 1.50 in his last five starts raises more red flags. Despite the solid surface stats we've seen from Koehler, there simply isn't much to get excited about from a skills perspective. His numbers have been propped up by some good luck, which makes this is a classic case of skills not supporting the stats. We may have already seen the best Koehler has to offer and he is without question the second best starter in this contest. Regression is coming.

Jason Hammel has walked six batters over his past 30 innings while striking out 33. His 33 K’s over that span and his 76 K’s in 83 innings overall are completely supported by his 13% swing and miss rate. Hammel has nine pure quality starts in 13 tries. He has posted a 2.06 ERA since the beginning of May with a strong 1.06 WHIP. A change in Hammel’s pitch mix could explain the sudden skills surge. He threw his four-seam fastball 30% of the time in 2013. He's throwing it only 10% of the time now. He uses his two-seam fastball 50% of the time and it has become a lot more effective for him. His K% on that pitch has jumped from 10% to 18%. Hammel has been tagged for two earned runs or less in seven of his past 10 starts. He just threw seven shutout innings against the Marlins 10 days ago and that was five days after he threw a seven inning, four-hit gem against the Brewers. Hammel has been taken yard just one time over his past nine starts and certainly offers up some value here against his inferior mound opponent.