BEST LINE: Pinnacle over 7½ -101

Posted at 11:25 AM EST.

The Marlins and Pirates have combined for 54 hits and 28 runs in the first two games of this series. Pittsburgh alone had 17 hits on Friday and 18 hits on Saturday and now we get a very beatable number because of Henderson Alvarez’s 2.56 ERA. Alvarez is 3-1 at home with a 1.47 ERA but it cannot last. Alvarez has not been able to turn his 93 MPH fastball into strikeouts. He has just 50 K’s in 81 innings and his 1.28 WHIP is above league average. His average swing and miss rate doesn't offer much hope for more Ks in the near future either. Alvarez has been greatly aided by an unsustainable 86% strand rate, which is the second highest mark among starters with eight or more starts. His surface stats are tempting to buy but his skills say a serious ERA correction is forthcoming. Alvarez is grossly overvalued and provides us with a solid over bet (not fade) because the opposing pitcher may be worse.

Vance Worley makes his first start of the year. In 10 games started last year for the Twins, Worley went 1-5 with an ERA of 7.31 and an oppBA of .368. Only two of his 10 starts were of the pure quality variety. Worley’s 2011 success seems long ago. Bone spurs hurt his 2012 results but they don't explain the 2013 debacle. In 2011 and 2012 Worley recorded a decent amount of K’s but his swing and miss rate said it wasn't going to last, and it didn't. His luck may turn at some point and but when the Twins don’t want you and your skills start this low, chances of success are slim. Expect plenty more hits and runs in this one.