BEST LINE: Pinnacle -1 +115

Posted at 11:20 AM EST

2:10 PM EST. After yesterday’s 7-2 victory, Kansas City has not only won five in a row but they’ve won nine of the past 10 games they’ve played at this venue. We mentioned yesterday that the Royals, based on their numbers, should be scoring a lot more runs than they were and they made us look good by hanging up a crooked number in the first inning and going on to an easy win. More of the same is a distinct possibility here against Hector Noesi.  This is Noesi's third team in 2014. Noesi went 0-1 with a 6.59 ERA in 21 innings for the Mariners last year. He spread out those 21 innings over five of the six months of the season but the abuse he took at Tacoma (5.83 ERA) indicates that his promotions were not merit-based. This year, Noesi is 2-4 with an ERA of 5.40. He has a unacceptable WHIP of 1.50 and a shaky 36%21%/44% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. He has poor control, he’s been extremely hittable at this level and he’s put up those awful numbers (both on the surface and under) with an unsustainable 80% strand rate over his last five starts. We've seen worse base skills but Noesi needs some extra fastball juice or a more of a groundball lean to take the next step. We're not optimistic.

Danny Duffy has shown some flashes of the upside he displayed prior to his Tommy John surgery a couple of years ago, including a near no-hitter. While his overall skills do not support his current 3.26 ERA, his raw stuff gives him much more strikeout upside than he is showing. Besides, this one is not about backing Duffy. The bet here is based on the hot Royals winning again, at a place they win often, against one of MLB’s worst starters.