BEST LINE: Pinnacle -120

Posted at 11:120 AM EST.

4:10 PM EST. We’re not in the habit of playing favorites because it’s not often that you find value in doing so but if the Giants are -160 (or thereabouts) over the Rockies than the Mets should be -180 over the Padres. We see lots of games at a higher price than this one and that's so wrong because thiis a significant pitching mismatch in the Mets favor and the Padres are dead last in the majors in several key offensive categories. The Padres have lost five in a row and nine of their past 11 games. Over that span they are hitting a pathetic .159 and it’s not just because they play in an extreme pitcher’s park. On the road, San Diego is batting a league low .212. Prior to this series they played three in Philly and scored five times and now they’ll face one of MLB’s most undervalued pitchers in Zack Wheeler. Wheeler cruised through three straight starts before a small road bump against the Giants earlier this week (4 ER in 3.2 IP on 86 pitches). Still, his 4.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP have huge room for improvement because Wheeler has some of the best skills in the game. Wheeler posts a strong K-rate of 9.2 K’s/9 through 13 starts and a 55% ground ball percentage. He does a great job of keeping balls in the park (0.6 HR/9) and the only reason his ERA is high is because of a low strand rate of 70%. Wheeler has the third best xERA in all of baseball over his last seven starts, which sits at 2.46. Expect a run at double-digit strikeouts and a win against the Padres today.

Jesse Hahn's promotion was as short-lived as expected. Hahn was sent to AAA-El Paso after his June 3rd start against the Pirates in which he was tagged for six hits and four earned runs in 3.2 innings. Hahn gets an emergency start here because Eric Stults was put on the bereavement list. His first start was at Petco and he was hammered. His second start isn’t likely to be much better, as Hahn takes the step from Double-AA San Antonio to the majors and it’s not like he was dominating the Double-AA Texas League. He posted a .252 BAA and pitched just 35 innings over eight starts. Hahn was yanked almost every game after pitching four innings or less, as the (San Antonio) Missions tried to bring him along slowly. His chances of pitching deep into this game are slim and his chance of success are just as slim.