BEST LINE: Pinnacle -108 

Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

Wade Miley is 9th in the NL in strikeouts with 77. Over his last three starts covering 20 innings, Miley has walked one batter while whiffing 25. Miley is coming on. His strikeout and groundball rates are trending the right way and so is his swing and miss rate, which has reached an elite 16% over his last three starts. Miley’s xERA of 3.35 is almost 1½-runs lower than his actual ERA so an ERA correction to the good is coming. Miley has a great chance to thrive here against the free-swinging Astros, who lead the majors with a combined 304 strikeouts. Miley’s 3-6 W/L record is one of the most misleading marks in the game, as he has had very little run support so far but that could all change here against Scott Feldman.

Feldman’s ERA after six starts this year was 2.63. His ERA entering this game has shot up to 4.12 and there’s likely more ERA correction on the way. Over his last three home games, Feldman has been tagged for 30 hits and 14 runs in 16.1 innings. Over his last five starts covering just 22 innings, Feldman has posted an xERA of 6.36, a BB/K split 7/12, a swinging strike rate of 5% and a WHIP of 2.09. If Scott Feldman and the Astros win here, so be it, but in terms of value, the Snakes hold it all, as they are an extremely cheap favorite that have a much higher chance of winning than the 51% chance that the line suggests.