BEST LINE: Pinnacle +101

Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

3:10 PM EST. The Rockies have found their groove again with 18 runs scored in the past two games and they have a good chance to keep that going today off of Ervin Santana. Santana has gone from throwing BB’s in his first five starts of the season to throwing beach balls in his subsequent four starts before settling down somewhat in his past two. Santana has a shaky BB/K split of 12/16 over his last five starts covering 30 frames. Over that span he has posted a 1.60 WHIP with a 4.69 xERA and 6.00 actual ERA. In his last start, Santana walked two and struck out one. At the beginning of the year, Santana had an uncharacteristic 15% swing and miss rate but hitters began studying his new pitch mix and style and his swing and miss rate over his last 7 starts is a mere 6%. Furthermore, Santana has never thrived pitching in day games. In two day games this year, Santana has a 7.38 ERA and a BAA of .308. In 31 day games over the past three years (not including this season), Santana posted an ERA of 4.49 with an xERA of 4.97 and a BAA of .262. Santana’s control has never been that good and now that batters are hitting him, we’re seeing that control erosion rear its ugly head again.

Jhoulys Chacin does not have pretty numbers. He’s 0-4 with a deserving 5.35 ERA after a BB/K split of 19/24 in 38.2 innings. The Rockies have lost six of his last seven starts but Chacin really hasn’t pitched that bad. For starters, this park is as tough as it gets and Chacin has surrendered just 10 runs over three starts here against the Mets, Giants and Dodgers. That’s not bad, as New York leads the NL in runs scored on the road and the Giants and Dodgers are both top 5 outfits in several offensive categories. Over his last three starts, Chacin has been taken yard just one time and he has posted a nice 50% groundball rate over that span. Chacin got off to a late start, as he didn’t make his season debut until May 5. We saw him flash some skill life in August and September of last season and he may just be regaining the outstanding form he showed from 2010-2013. Don’t count Chacin out just yet, as he and the Rockies could be a sneaky live pup here.