BEST LINE: Pinnacle +113

Posted at 9:40 AM EST

Wei-Yin Chen has four pure quality starts in 12 tries this season. Yeah, he doesn’t walk many and yeah he usually gives the Orioles a chance to win but a 4.13 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP make this very average pitcher unappealing as the chalk. In 39 innings at Camden Yards, Chen has a BAA of .288. In eight night games, his BAA is .297. Chen is a pitcher that relies heavily on his defense and good fortune, as the ball is almost always in play when he pitches. As a pooch throwing for a team with a good offense, Chen does have value when offered a tag but that’s not the case here.

Rubby De La Rosa has made just two starts but in those 13 innings he has walked just two batters while whiffing 13. Those 13 K’s are supported by his elite 14% swing and miss rate. De La Rosa has experienced a long road back after TJ surgery in 2011 and he’s looking stronger with each passing week. De La Rosa owns pure arm strength and can light up radar guns with his fastball that’ll sit between 93-98 mph and is tough to hit. He throws with whip-like arm action which gives him deception and pitch movement. De La Rosa also uses a slider and changeup. When on, his sharp slider exhibits nasty action and he throws it for strikes consistently. In his two starts, De La Rosa has an xERA of 2.66 to go along with a an elite groundball/fly-ball split of 54%/26%. De La Rosa has a much higher ceiling than Chen and is one of the best “but-low” targets on the market. This is true value.