BEST LINE: Pinnacle -101

POSTED AT 11:45 AM EST.

Philadelphia has one win in its last nine games and they’ve lost four of the past six times that A.J. Burnett has started. You may recall that Burnett was on the verge of retiring before this season but the Phillies gave him 14 million reasons not to. Psychologically, Burnett may have already retired. He’s surrendered 26 hits and 19 earned runs in his last three starts covering 20 innings. Over his last five starts he has a BB/K split of 20/28 in 30 innings, which has led to a WHIP of 1.87. His four-seam fastball velocity has dipped to 91 mph and his swing and miss % has declined from 11% to 7%. The problem has been his knuckle-curve. It's a pitch that generated a high near-20% swing and miss rate in each of the last three seasons but this year that pitch has dipped to 11%. Burnett’s xERA is 6.16 over his last three starts and he’s allowed three runs or more in six straight.

Ian Kennedy is such a better option than Burnett. Kennedy has thrown a **pure quality start in each of his last four starts. Three of those four have come at Petco Park but he is succeeding even more on the road this season. In five road starts, he is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Kennedy is enjoying a huge resurgence, both on the surface (3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and beneath it (3.10 xERA) and he hasn't been feasting just on RH bats. His skills actually have been better against LH bats with outstanding control, 11.8K’s/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 42% groundball rate. Kennedy figures to thrive against a Phillies team that struggles to hit right-handed pitching, as they have a .233 BA and .655 OPS versus them. At a cheap price, we get the much better pitcher, the better bullpen and the team in better form.  

**We mention “pure quality start” often so here is a refresher course on our theory:

The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation. In pure quality start, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria:

1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he does not get a pure quality start, he gets a 0 score no matter what other stats he produces.

2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.

3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.

4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.

5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.

The nice thing about pure quality start is it allows us to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.

Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the pure quality start scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.

In other words, if a pitcher goes 7 innings and allows 7 runs on seven hits, strikes out eight, walks none and gives up one jack, that’s a PURE QUALITY START or a PQS score of 4 out of 5.  

This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by what the rest of the team does.