BEST LINE: Pinnacle -1½ +121

POSTED AT 11:45 AM EST.

We keep fading Kevin Correia and we keep getting paid off so we’re not about to put the brakes on that just yet. Correia has a job for one reason and one reason only; he’s being paid a ridiculous 5.5M this season and the Twinkies will let him rot out there at that hefty price rather than demote him to the pen. What chance does Correia have at this park against the Blue Jays? It could get ugly. Correia has a mere 37 K’s in 66.1 innings. Because he rarely misses a bat, he’s allowed an incredible 89 hits in those 66.1 innings for a BAA of .321. Incidentally, Jose Bautista is 6 for 9 lifetime (.669) v Correia with two jacks, Jose Reyes is 10 for 28 (.357), Brett Lawrie is 3 for 3 and Edwin Encarnacion is 6-24 with 2 jacks. Correia’s low 4% swing and miss rate combined with his fly-ball rate of 41% makes him batting practice out there.

J.A. Happ has been criticized at every level at every place he’s ever played. He’s the Rodney Dangerfield of starting pitchers but what he does do is win games. In seven games started, Happ is 5-2. He’s struck out 29 batters over his past 34 innings and he has a very good history against current Twins’ batters (oppBA of .229) albeit in a small sample size (35 career AB’s). Happ’s dominant start/disaster start splits nicely summarize the feast-or-famine nature of his performances but this one really isn’t about backing Happ as much as it is in fading Correia. Jays should score six or more for fun and if the Twinkies keep pace, good luck to them.